Money Monster

I recently saw this movie.  I give it a 6 out of 10.  It was a decent movie but I was disappointed with how simple the storyline was.  The previews tell you everything.  Random guy loses money on a stock and holds a tv host hostage.  That's about it.  The only thing that was slightly interesting about the story was how you slowly figure out who the "bad guy" is.  There were several neat details placed in the movie but the pic below is around 85% of what you will see.

White House Spokesman Made Foolish Market Prediction

Back on March 18, 2014, someone made a horrible prediction of the Russian stock market. 
“I wouldn’t, if I were you, invest in Russian equities right now—unless you’re going short,”
President Barack Obama’s chief spokesman, Jay Carney.  Obama was being pressured by Putin and I guess "unofficially" it was ok for anyone to say bad things about Russia's future just because our leader was generally-kinda-negative-ish towards Putin.  Groupthink?  Maybe.....probably.

Stupid prediction!

First of all, you can't predict stuff and you should not give investment advice if that is not even your role.  This dude did both.  When he made that comment, Russia's MICEX market index was almost 35% off its previous high after the 2008 recession.  Sounds like a time to buy to me.  I start buying around 30% off.  That's when things are on sale.  Their market was fairly volatile for a few years leading up to that point.  Price was bouncing around in a pretty flat but wide channel.  So I would have strongly disagreed with Jay Carney at the time.  Then to make him look really bad, MICEX never went lower and eventually reached all new highs as of this week.  That would have been a nice 2 year trade for me.  I would have bought around 1300, sold around 1800.  Today, MICEX is at 1977 and its knockin on resistance.

The Nice Port

Imagine this: 

There is a country which will not be able to pay its debts and his hoping for a bailout from a larger country or a bankruptcy type of restructuring to spread things out.

fiscal management is considered a disaster

the country is small and is being compared to Detroit.

a politician from this country now authorizes a budget which takes money away from things such as education and not only overfunds public pensions (to pay your friends) but gives the President's wife a $2.5 million incidental allowance so she can 'get by' and pay for 'necessities'?

Surprise!  Its all true.  Puerto Rico is the winner....yay....

Class of 2016-18 - Earning an MBA is never a bad idea :)

Great Advice

Most investing advice that is available is either too elementary or pointless/random.  The Motley Fool has some people who really know how to trade.  They tend to profess what i already do:

It's common knowledge that the point of investing is to buy low and sell high, but selling because your stocks went down is the exact opposite of that. Of course, if your stocks go down because of any of the reasons listed here, such as a fundamental change in the business, by all means go ahead and sell. However, if the price drop has little to do with the company itself, a price drop should be looked at as a buying opportunity, not a reason to panic.

Nintendo

So a bunch of people bought Nintendo stock since they heard that Pokemon Go had become very popular around the world.  Now those same people are learning that Nintendo does not even own the game.  People thought Pokemon Go would make Nintendo suddenly take over the gaming world or something along those lines.  Somehow they thought this would happen just from one popular game people play on their phones.  Nintendo only receives a sliver of the profit due to licensing fees.  The stock price exploded, then crashed.  The thing is, it crashed due to people being so excited they didn't realize who owned the game.  Normally a crash would be because popularity ended.  Interesting.
The stock price was around 18, then it shot up to around 38, then it crashed and is currently around 27.  It is still popular and may get even more popular.  If people weren't so ignorant and impulsive, the stock price would have quickly bumped up to the 20-22 range.

This is kind of funny.  People look stupid when they are wandering around together looking for pokemon with their phones.  It makes sense for people to look stupid for attempting to 'invest' in Pokémon.  From what I see, people are having fun looking for the pokemon but no one is actually playing the game where you make your pocket monsters fight each other.  That will probably describe the wane of popularity overall when it happens.

What now?

The sp500 is floating around 2162.  It is just sitting there.  There wont be a selloff until there is fear of losing money.  There is nothing to talk about in the news other than terrorism and shootings.   People are not worried about their money.  The wealthy are sitting tight for now.  The middle class is riding high with few worries.  What happens next?

Sp500 new high

And just like that, the market gaps up to new highs.  Trading is fairly quiet during the day. Price is giving soft love taps to 2155.  Lately its calm all day but then price gaps up in the morning.  The stair stepping thing. 

If all the action is in the open, then there might be people making longer term trades.  Who knows.  My 401k is at a new high total, thats cool.  Is the market pushing up before dropping down like in the brexit vote?  All i know is people are buying at all time highs.  How dumb is that?  That is like buying clothes after they raise the price instead of having a sale.  As King Louie said in Jungle Book... "cur-aaaz-eh"

History in the making

The sp 500 is making all time highs as we speak.  That should create excitement and coerce people to make trades. 

It was pushing up very slowly after the opening.  It would probably keep rising for a while.

As i type this it is hitting 2138.  It is an interesting time because i know there could be a record high breakout to the upside or there could be a major selloff falling down to 1300.

What i do like is how my oil stock is not correlated with the market day.  For a little while they were moving together. 

S & P 500

So, im seeing this index sitting right at all time highs.  It is at 2120 this very moment.  Brexit was a major event in the news but very minor to the US in reality.  It still cared a lot of people into making trades.  Now we know people are listening to economic news.  Maybe that was the wake up call.  Maybe the big fall is being set up.  You cant have a market decline if the market participants arent reading economic news.  If bad economic news will now catch the eye of many people, then a major event that is actually major to the US in reality can cause a market selloff.  It is interesting trying to figure out what would cause a decline but in the end, predicting is impossible unless u actually have super powers.  What i do know is that we are vulnerable to a selloff.  I have no clue what will or could cause it.  When a selloff happens, it is because enough people decided to sell at the same time and more join in as it gets worse. Then vultures like me start circling.

British Sterling

After looking at an etf named FXB, I wish I could buy GBP currency too.  Regardless of how you could execute the trade, buying GBP sounds like what I love the most.  It is basically going into its own little recession, possibly depression and now its on clearance.  I wish I could buy that in my 401k.  Excluding short sellers, to be selling GBP now would be proof that you are a horrible investor.  Selling low is horrible and the opposite of what you are supposed to do.  Now is the time to buy, not sell.  It is the time to buy because so many others have sold.  Most of them do not know what they are doing.  I'm sure a few would rather stay in but have to get out for whatever reason or maybe they really do have a quicker/better opportunity to put their money in.  But in the end, chances are most of the people responsible for pushing prices down really are wrong/clueless whether they admit it or not.  But I am glad they are like that because I can take advantage of it.  Or, I would take advantage of it if I could.

Ahhh, so many opportunities.  So many depressed assets to buy.  Life is too short.  I know, I will live to be 100 so i can die with a huge trading account :) 

Greece

I was checking out GREK which is a solid representation of the Greek stock market.  I would buy it.  It peaked at 25 back in 2014 and has been bouncing around between 10 and 5 lately.    Within a few years i can see it back up to 15.  It would be a pretty solid trade in my opinion.  The EU is being forced to move toward stricter economic rules for member countries.  Once they get over the accountability hurdle, things will look good again.  The EU economy may never catch up to the US economy but thats another story.  GREECE looks like a good buy to me.

My book

Im wanting to finish my book soon.  I would rather publish something this year than work on it forever until it is a masterpiece.  The problem is i am not sure of what the point of the book should be. I wanted it to be focused on me learning how to trade and easing into it.  Economic events would be mentioned as they happened.  I would include my own observations.  I feel like just talking about myself could be boring.  Maybe what i have is good and i can just add more about world events.  Then the book could be about someone learning how to trade and the economy during that time.  I would rather be a reporter of events than an egotistical hopefully-a-future-success type of author.  My own trading could be in the background with events in the foreground. It would be the opposite of what i first intended. Yeah, that sounds good.  I like it.

People Do Not Care About Principles

People of the world definitely do not care about principles, they only care about what they already know.

When there was a shooting in Paris, 'the world cried', 'jes suis paris' and all that solidarity stuff.  When ten times as many people were being slaughtered or enslaved in africa at the same time hardly anyone said a word about it.

Recently there was a shooting at a homosexual night club in Orlando, Florida on 'latin night'.  It was in the news a lot for a couple weeks.  Just now a shooting at an airport in Turkey resulted in almost triple the amount of dead/wounded but with little coverage.  It was significantly worse than what happened in Orlando.  Orlando has a good reputation, its fun.  They even opened up the airport the next day.  Just a busy day for police, paramedics and custodians, back to work!

People don't care about violence so much, only violence that is near them or near something they consider special.

Many people do not check their 401k's that often but lately they have been because Brexit was in the news.  Many people made trades to change their portfolios when the market only went down a percent or so.  People were scared, but hardly anything happened.  It has only been a few trading days since and market averages are almost back to where they were.  But people were scared just because it was in the news.  They were scared because they consider the United Kingdom a special place.  If Denmark or Estonia or Poland left the EU, noone would say much because they dont have nice reputations like the UK.  In the UK there is a royal family and old clock towers and bridges.  James Bond, Elton John, The Beatles, Adelle, Rolls Royce, Bentley, Jaguar, Land Rover, Triumph, Robin Hood, Winston Churchill, fish n chips, chef Gordon Ramsey and the list goes on.  The UK has a reputation where they have stuff and its a 'good' country.  These ignorant investors I share breathable air with may not be able to  locate Britain on a map or tell me why leaving the EU is a good or bad thing, but they were scared.

Of course I did nothing.  I am in long term trades so one hiccup in the markets does not matter.  Even if I was in short term trades, I would have let them run there course or at the most, avoided trading going into the vote.  I am just so great it hurts.  Humility is for the runner up.

I just feel like everyone is confirming for the millionth time that they are clueless about what is happening in the stock market and their retirement accounts.  But now I am wondering, what changes did people make?  Apparently nothing too drastic.  The market has gone back to where it was.  The gap down from brexit has almost filled as of now.  I am still buying Dfemx, still buying China.  Speaking of China, Hong Kong is in a recession.  That island's economy has been touch and go for a while. 

Well, at least Brexit happened.  That is something.  It is really boring when there is nothing going on.  You can always count on the British to try things.  They do stuff when they are bored.  I think they have too much knowledge and expertise for there own good.  It has to get real boring being an island on the west side of Europe.  Someone should let the British run Europe instead of Europe running Britain.

Is this it?

Brexit caused a big down day in equities.  2 trillion $  in value is now gone. It looks like an all time high was reached the night before, then americans woke up to a big gap down as the votes were counted in merry old england.  The s & p was down over 3%.  Im liking it.  Maybe this is the first step in the equity selloff.  Of course, i would prefer a non-energy sell off rather than an all out equity sell off.  I dont have control over that.  China cant go much lower so my china trade may push up as the west goes down.  My oil trade is still thinking but i know eventually it will disconnect with the rest of the market.  Soon it may be considered a safe haven.

We'll see.

The British Exit

So British citizens voted to completely leave the EU by a small margin.  I think actual sentiment barely leaned toward remaining inside the EU but those people were not as diligent about getting out to vote.  It is the aspect of voting people forget about and polls don't really show it.  There is not too much action going on outside of some reshuffling between currencies, stocks and the like.  There are fake rumors about layoffs and relocating.

The exit itself doesn't mean much other than some technical changes will occur, mostly British will govern themselves.  For now it probably is better that they leave the EU.  When you become a state of a larger entity, it should be because it is mutually beneficial.  The state should be above average compared to the existing states, which Britain was.  The larger entity overall should be better than the state overall which it is not.  And that is the problem.  It really wont be worth it for Britain or any developed nation to join the EU until the EU has uniform policies like a real nation.  Right now its just a big bag of mixed treaties and recommended fiscal policies.  There is little accountability and in the end Germany is the real beneficiary.  The financial crisis of 2008 left several countries with a much smaller economy, strike one.  The migrant crisis  has caused violence, vandalism, no-go zones and has pissed off taxpayers, strike two.  I guess they will trudge along until they fail at another crisis, which would be strike three.

The most important thing I got out of this whole European bureacratic squabbling is that the former mayor of London who helped the Brexit campaign has really cool hair.  A big, randomly combed, mop of hair.

Financial Farmer

Lately I have been thinking about how I like to enter fairly long trades which may last a few years or so.  To me it is like growing trees.  I plant a seed or branch and wait.  I may water and nourish it for a while to get it going but at some point it will look like it is growing well.  This is like the period when Im buying low.  Eventually i may dig it up and sell the whole tree but if I have several trees growing they will be sold at different times.  This is like me having several trades going.  That is basically my diversification and it would create a fairly stable capital gain income. I want to plant a row of trees and eventually I will expect to sell a different one each year.  Right now I only have two trades going but I may enter a third trade next year depending on if China starts moving up.  If China does go up overall, then I will stop buying DFEMX and just wait to sell it.  At that time I could buy something else that is down.  I have heard of a trader comparing their style to being a farmer.  I am not sure if it exactly how I am looking at it.  Over time I will look forward to adding more and more trades.  I should get to the point where I am always about to enter something new and exit something old.  I am not there yet.  I am still just buying more and more of one thing until I am forced to buy something else.  That probably won't happen again.  I have two trees on my farm.  My choice of seeds are limited but I may look into opening a Traditional IRA if it would let me buy a better variety of seeds/industries.  I will worry about that a little later.  It will be a nice problem to have.

Brexit vote on June 23

By William James, Freya Berry and Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) - The world's biggest banks including Citi and Goldman Sachs will draft in senior traders to work through the night following Britain's referendum on EU membership, set to be among the most volatile 24 hours for markets in a quarter of a century.

A vote to leave the European Union on June 23 would spook investors by undermining post-World War Two attempts at European integration and placing a question mark over the future of the United Kingdom and its $2.9 trillion economy.

Its the superbowl of british financial assets.  One day people poll to remain, then a week later it goes the other way.

It is a big deal because people want to be ready to move in the right direction.  They are not sure what will happen.  Some might be stressing out over it.  I would think positive.  There are very few potential outcomes in price movement.  Up, down, and nowhere.  Brexit wont have a big impact on me but even if it did , all i would do to prepare is the usual. In My longer term trades, brexit wont change final outcomes but it could change short term movement.  Short term movement means very little to me. 

Auto Sales

Financing for the average new car is longer than ever.  The avg cost is over 30k which is high.

Today i saw a guy in a new small BMW.  He used to drive a small Infiniti which was possibly 5 years old.  I guess it was getting too old and worn out for him.  He could be leasing a new $35k car every few years or buying one every several years.  Either way he is getting a bad deal.  Maybe he is having tons of fun driving through traffic, you never know.  Im assuming he would say that he loves his new little BMW.  He probably used to love the Infiniti.  If you really love a car you would keep it for 15 or 20 years and occasionally fix what breaks.  I would not pay about $700 a month for something i dont plan to keep for a long time. 

People seem vulnerable to a downturn.  Average folks are riding high.  Nothing to worry about.

Miami

Another Bubble Has Burst: The Miami Luxury Condo Market Is A “Ticking Timebomb”
Tyler Durden
Last year we warned that the luxury condo market in Miami was cooling down, and we also noted that one of the mail culprits was the fact that foreign buyers (especially Brazilians) were seeing their buying power crushed by the appreciating dollar.

Today, the bubble has officially burst and the Miami luxury condo market is a complete trainwreck. There are 3,397 condominiums available in the downtown Miami area, and at current prices it is estimated that it would take 29 months to sell those. A strong US Dollar has continued to force South American investors to unload recently built condos, adding inventory to an area where 8,000 units are under construction and nine towers have already been completed since 2013.

There was a similar real estate downturn in Florida prior to the 1929 equity crash. The wealthy are getting pinched.  Price per square foot doubled over the past few years but now the party is over.  Half of those gains could dissapear in a few months time.  Hmmmm, interesting.

The Clintons are Funny

Chelsea Clinton husband Marc Mezvinsky won’t apologize to investors
Ben Ashford For Dailymail.com

Mezvinsky has refused to apologize to investors yesterday - despite losing nearly $25 million of their money in a gamble on the Greek economy.

Those investors include wealthy Clinton family supporters, some of whom have contributed campaign money to either Bill or Hillary
Mezvinsky  persuaded clients to pour cash into the struggling European country in the hope it would bounce back and deliver massive profits.  When Daily Mail Online asked Mezvinsky - outside his $10 million Manhattan apartment -  he refused to discuss the Greek tragedy.

Marc's father  Edward Mezvinsky, pleaded guilty to 31 charges of felony fraud in 2001 and spent five years in federal prison.  He admitted scamming his friends and family out of $10 million in a Ponzi scheme.

And to top it off, Chelsea's mom in fairly close to becoming President, oh my lord...so rediculous.  This article made me laugh.

US equity market Status

The S and P 500 is in the slightest downward channel.  There is clear minor resistance and support.  We appear to be leaving resistance again to fall down to support, again.  If support does not hold this time, then it will probably become the big sell off i have been waiting for.  Slowly more and more industries seem to be turning down or staying down.  Amazon is the only big name stock i have heard was gaining lately.  Considering several other big internet stocks have gone down, Amazon must be doing well on their own accord.  Someone give Bezos a platinum cookie.

Will there be a China Crisis?

The depression in oil was a major event but i dont think it will get blamed for a market selloff, if one happens.  But the next biggest event is China's overall economy gradually heading lower.  They are probably just now bottoming out in the middle of a strong recession. Chinese stocks are artificially high and should probably be around 60-70 percent off instead of only 30-40 percent off from highs.  A guy on cnbc was saying major turbulence in China could trigger a US sell off.  Anything is possible.  I am wondering if turbulence could make the chinese end their communistic price floor controls and let everything actually trade freely like it should.  Then i could buy my DFEMX at better prices for my 401k.  We'll see.

How was the group interview?

Four guilty of $10 million investment scheme involving medical device
Eric Heisig, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Four men were found guilty by a jury Friday for concocting a scheme worth more than $10 million to sell unregistered securities and lie to investors about a medical device they claimed they were developing.

The masterminds lied about patents and fda approval for a device that destroys needles.  They even had a fake location setup with parts laying around.  This is a real life reenactment of the movie Boiler Room.  Someone should make a movie about people who copied a movie.  Reco!

How was the group inyrrview?

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Four men were found guilty by a jury Friday for concocting a scheme worth more than $10 million to sell unregistered securities and lie to investors about a medical device they claimed they were developing.

Ivy League Drama

Patrick Chung and Hugo Van Vuuren had started a fund together which fell apart due to ego and power.  Their fund grew and expanded well in its 5 year existence.  The partners just did not get along.  Most involved silicon valley, Harvard, Stanford, etc.  The elite of education and technology.  As the fund grew, contracts changed, people argued, people were terminated, others resigned.  So embarrassing.  If you want to know how not to run a small fund, read about the Experiment Fund, a failed experiment.  You will also see who can raise money which is sad.  Chung sounds like a despot from what i have read but who knows.

Is Global Warming a good thing?

Has anyone asked that question?

People mostly argue over the cause of it.

Its the reason why half of our habitable land is not covered in glaciers anymore.  We may add to it but it is definitely a cyclical natural phenomenon. 

People are buying cheap land in the Canadian and Russian tundras.  If global warming continues, that land will become more valuable and ice free long enough to farm.  It is a long term investment.

Global warming = more usable land, anti-warming businesses, protective construction....MORE BUSINESS

the extra business could outweigh the costs of water levels being a few inches higher.

Almost halfway through 2016

Its looking like Hillary will become president since its basically her and Donald now.  Equities around the world went down after Ted and John ended their campaigns.  Thats funny. 

I will probably keep buying DFEMX for the rest of the year.  Its basically a China trade.  It mirrors large cap chinese co's.  price is low but could be lower.  Its the only decent thing to buy in my 401k. 

Maybe next year i will buy a us equity fund if the market ever drops.  It will drop when people stop buying but they wont stop.  Big money sells one thing to buy another.  There is no general aversion to equity but gold is pushing up.  The USD might finally drop .  I feel like we are on the cusp of a big selloff.  So close. 

Icahn and Latin America

Is Icahn an icon?

He is beating the sell off drum.  There will probably be a sell off.  Equities have been sitting just below all time highs for a while now.  Pretty boring.  If there is a drop, my dfemx should move lower so i can buy at better prices. 

Puerto Rico is about to default on bond payments.  Cuba is slowly opening up to American tourists.  Venezuela is in a energy crisis/monetary crisis/ depression.  Another routine deadly explosion at a Pemex location in Mexico killed over 30 people.  More shootouts in the street in Guerrero, Mexico.  Several hundred people died from an earthquake in Ecuador a couple weeks ago.  I will be relaxing in Quintana Roo, Mexico soon.  Hispanic cultures are bad at economics but they happen to live near some wonderful environments.

Funny

UC Berkeley Touts $15 Minimum Wage Law, Then Fires Hundreds Of Workers After It Passes
UC Berkeley announced that it was laying off 500 employees just a week after California Gov. Jerry Brown approved a $15 minimum wage.

And

By Serajul Quadir

DHAKA (Reuters) - Bangladesh's central bank was vulnerable to hackers because it did not have a firewall and used second-hand, $10 switches to network computers connected to the SWIFT global payment network, an investigator into one of the world's biggest cyber heists said.

The shortcomings made it easier for hackers to break into the Bangladesh Bank system earlier this year and attempt to siphon off nearly $1 billion using the bank's SWIFT credentials

People never change

By
Megan McArdle

Why can so few people seem to save any money? The number of people scraping along from paycheck to paycheck is astonishing; surveys routinely find that somewhere between a third and half of all Americans don’t have the savings to fund ordinary emergencies -- a moderately large repair, a month with no income. These are not the kind of astonishing runs of bad luck that no one could realistically expect to cover, like a $100,000 medical bill, or a multi-year illness that makes it impossible to work. They’re just the normal vicissitudes of regular life, and somehow, Americans are unprepared.

So, if i bet on people being immature, foolish and bad with their money, i will win.  Its not everyone, but more than enough.  It also dedcribes human beings, not just americans.  Who knows what kind of market crash is coming but we sure are ripe for one.  Before the last crash Hummers were popular, now its Jeep.

Brexit

The EU started out as not even a half-hearted attempt to make the continent one big, efficient nation.

If Britain leaves it wont impact the world that much.  Their economy would shrink a little immediately, followed by expansion. The question is whether all that would be better than the so-so expansion they can expect with the EU.

In the long run, i dont think it matters if brexit happens or not.  The real problem is how pathetic the EU plan has been executed.  Its almost as bad as Russia's transition to capitalism.  Eventually, maybe when im old, the continent will be one big nation.  The fact that countries occasionally consider leaving means there is little patriotism towards being in the EU.  It doesnt feel natural to the people.  A state in the US has not considered leaving our union in about 150 years and that was mainly due to british instigation. The us has every state represented in the government and federal laws are pretty uniform.  Europeans dont want to be one big country yet.  They just want a better deal.  They do not understand how truly joining together is better.  It will take a couple generations before random europeans grow up considering themselves European first, and german or italian second.  There is no real pride yet, just a deal that kinda sounds better, hopefully, maybe.

Eventually random Scandinavians and poles will tell people they live in the EU and the state they grew up in was norway, poland or Romania.  That is when there economy will be doing well.  It will be awhile.  For now, Britain should do whatever helps them sleep at night. 

Villifying Wall Street again

Wall Street Pay Has More Than Doubled in the Past 25 Years but No One Else Can Say the Same

That pay gap has helped fueled the “angry votes” in support of the more extreme presidential candidates on either side of the aisle during this election cycle: Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.

Lucinda Shen

Lets hate on fat cat bankers again.  The more ignorant, short term voters Lucinda is referring to hate anyone with success.  We arent communists, so how can anyone argue over pay gaps between different industries and functions?  Money should only be taken away if crime is involved.  But if someone wants someone elses wealth because they feel entitled to it, then they should be ignored.  They are immature, ignorant and materialistic.  And if they are against the finance industry in general, then they should move to Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea or some other extreme left wing nation with pathetic quality of life.

Another reason for US being propped up

Direct investment by China in the U.S. is on track to hit a record $30 billion in 2016, according to research firm Rhodium Group and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, which works to promote closer ties between the countries.

That's double last year's record $15 billion investment.

There are few signs that investment will slow as China works to increase its exposure to higher-income countries and counteract an economic slowdown at home.

All that money coming in is great but it cant last.  Our stock market is going sideways.  Something is still preventing a selloff.  Its becoming a boring market top.

Earth's Economy is bigger than you think

One day our global economy will get a boost when underground economies convert to above ground where its less profitable but legal.  I don't think people realize how there are criminal organizations pretty much everywhere.  We like to talk about the economy and GDP and how everything is growing.  But all that we cover on CNBC is only hitting on maybe 90-92% of economic activity.  All the illegal gains in the world might equal the GDP of country such as the United Kingdom or India.  If someone decided to study organized crime as a hobby, they would see it everywhere.  I read an article about La Ndrangheta and La Cosa Nostra.  Two rival organizations from Calabria and Sicilia.  There is an internal war/power grab within La Ndrangheta in Canada.  Most will never hear about it since there is no bloodbath in the street.  Mexican cartels and terrorist armies in 3rd world countries get that kind of attention.  While people talk about mutilated bodies being found in resort towns, Yakuza, Triads, Mafia, Ukrainians and many others are very busy. 

Depending on what they do exactly, criminal organizations can range from being fleas who just skim a little off the top from many to rabid wolves running around forcing their will on whoever is in the way.  Some are violent and some are not.  The older more mature organizations have little violence.  One day things will change.  It won't be worth it to be underground.  Some type of amnesty could occur.  I think im looking way too far ahead in the future though. Several thousand years maybe? Maybe.  But small steps in that direction could occur which would lead to a bump in tax revenue/employment/GDP.  There are individuals all over the world making hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars per year.  If their income became transparent and legal or if all that money flowed into legal businesses instead, there would be a significant change.

Legalization of recreational use of Marijuana in 4 or more states in the US already has shown that.  Smuggling weed across the border and the violence associated with it is down dramatically.  Now there are businesses selling reefer products and the IRS is getting more income.  Its a start.

Just a thought.

Peter Schiff is funny

He said 2008 would be a major crash, but he says 2016 will be even worse.  He said wal-mart will be the new Saks Fifth Ave.  Pretty much a doomsday scenario. 

He is just following the basic business cycle.  Recession about every 8 years.  He just keeps saying the next one will be bigger, and it will go on, and on.  He makes money on this type of thing.  He is an economic fire and brimstone apacalyptic preacher.

No more CAM

The SLB/CAM  merger is official.  My CAM shares should convert to SLB shares.  Im still not sure if i will be able to buy SLB shares in the future for my 401k.  It sounds like i will not which is odd.  I now have shares in DFEMX.  It seems like a mostly east-asian emerging market fund.  DFEMX is not really far below its highs but its decent.  Hopefully it continues to drop which would mean its companies are more tied to economies other than China.  If it moves up from here then it might be a short trade.  Its about $22 now but $18 would be nice.  Overall, emerging markets a a great buy right now, almost or close to half off their highs.  DFEMX is more like 20% off but i will work with what i have.

Godfather of wall street??

‘Godfather’ of chart analysis says the stock-market correction is over
Said Barbara Kollmeyer
Technical analyst Ralph Acampora went on a mini tweet storm a day after Wall Street stocks closed at 2016 highs

Rebound will keep happening for commodities, emerging markets, says Ralph Acampora

The direction for stocks is north, says this technical guru.

Ive never heard of Ralphy, but he must have a nice reputation.  We'll see what happens. 

Emerging Markets

So, t rowe price manages my 401k and there will be some changes since April 1 will be the day Cameron and Schlumberger merge. I wont be able to buy CAM anymore and for some reason SLB will not be available for me to buy.  I chose to buy DFEMX which is an emerging markets fund.  i only have 16 different assets to buy and most either move the same or lack volatility.  My options are very limited but ill make it work.  DFEMX is about 20% from its all time high and has been in a trendless slump for a few years.  It has a weird chart with many holdings.  Maybe it will crash for me, maybe not.  I hope i will benefit from it if oil goes up, dollar goes down, china goes up or something major happens. Its chart mirrors Ford Motor Co which i cant explain. Ford will probably move lower so maybe that means i can get a better price for DFEMX.  :-)

No change

Its getting boring.  The sp500 is hovering a little below its all time highs.  Oil is going up like a snail but thats something. Most of the action lately has been for swing traders and day traders.  Im still buying CAM which will become SLB, so im basically getting SLB about 35% off its high.  Thats a good thing.  Hopefully my 401k will have something that drops when SLB moves up above $85.

Beach house

The equity market is still being propped up.  Oil is rising but the dollar is falling.  This is keeping buying and selling pressures about the same.  The sp500 is not too far from its all time highs again.  Equities will need a decent storm to knock over the current house before there is a real downturn.  The house is propped up pretty well.  Im thinking a major market selloff is now pending our presidential election.  I need to check my 401k choices to see if anything is low.  My current choice probably wont be a good deal anymore by this fall.

Dead stock market walking

Someone decsribed the market as the walking dead.  Right now a snapshot of the health of public companies will be ok on average.  people argue this and that. At the end of the day, we have an equity market which is now trendless after years of solid expansion which took indices to new all time highs. There would have to be some fundamental change to be the cataclyst for another expansion.  I dont see anything right now.  There is no excitement about any particular industry carrying the rest.  There is no breakthrough techology changing everyones lives right now.   If you are arguing against a major market downturn, you are basically arguing against business cycles.  At best, the equity market will go sideways for another year or two, then start another expansion.  Hopefully i will.be able to buy indices cheap in my 401k soon. Oil wont be at a big discount much longer.

When schools invest

The ivy league universities have some large endowements right now.  Most major schools have a billion or more.  Harvard has $38 billion and Yale has $26 billion.  They might have 10-15% of it in hedge funds.  I don't see anything wrong with it.  Endowement funds are meant to be invested, whether its in bonds/equities/etf's/index funds/derivatives/currencies/commodities or whatever should not matter.  To give a portion of it to a hedge fund to basically manage for them does not mean much.  Im sure I would consider most funds overdiversified but thats another issue.
 
People might make fun of Harvard and say they are a hedge fund with a school, but all the best schools are endowement basically that.  The best schools are 'funds with a school'.  For some reason people don't say anything until the phrase 'hedge fund' is mentioned.  If they pulled out of hedge funds it would not change anything.  Hedge funds have a negative connotation, just like being a 'trader'.  For some reason its bad to be a trader, but good to be an investor.  Its bad to be a hedge fund, but good to be a mutual fund.  Stereotypes from media i guess.

They get tax breaks so they invest like crazy and are under bad management if they don't invest like crazy.  Maybe one day I can make trades for a nice school, maybe for an alma matter.  They would probably be too risk averse to let me do everything I want but with luck I could find a school that is hungry for growth.  Or I could just leave trading to my own account, who knows.

Education

I will invest in myself (increase my debt) by earning an MBA within the next couple of years.  That should allow me to learn a little more, earn more money and probably come up with a couple ideas i would not have otherwise.

Maybe i can directly manage assets  or do something indirectly  related to investing one day.  Or something entirely different, who knows.  Either way i will always grow my personal investments.  If i am a little luck and make some good decisions, i can hang out on nice beaches often in the second half of my life.  I will plan on taking advantage of deferred taxes on my 401k to slowly bleed it dry when i stop working by my mid sixties.  Hopefully i can save up at least a few hundred thousand to trade with by 40 and then maybe retire early at 45.  Just hang out and manage my money from then on. And buy things for my wife.

I guess i have it all figured out, so easy.  No roadblocks im sure.

People repeat

Industries go through business cycles, people go through opinion cycles.

I have listened to financial news often for a while now, years really.  I hear the same opinions at different times.  Generally, people who like to give their opinions either try to predict where a market is headed or explain where a market currently is.  In the media, i hear every opinion all the time, so that doesnt help.  Predicting is impossible so i ignore that completely.  Current status is valuable and i pay attention to that.  Opinions on current status of a market goes through a cycle.  I didnt need to be aware of this cycle to make money on my oil stock but in hindsight i see it as another confirmation one could use. 

When a market peaks, certain opinions are more common.  When a market starts to drop others are more common.  The same goes for when a drop has gone on for awhile, when a bottom is met, when a rise begins, when a rise has gone on for awhile and back to the peak.

I always hear every opinion but there is usually a more common opinion at any moment or maybe a lack of or a certain combination.  The questions people ask change throughout a the cycle too.  Right now people are surprised to hear someone is investing in oil even though most believe oil is only going up this year.  Its as if most agree oil will probably go up, opinions differ by how much, but if someone actually backs up what they say...oh wow, they have skin in the game, i wonder what will happen, interesting.....which doesnt make sense to me at first.  Then i remember how financial news media is dominated by people who have no real confidence.  They either talk for a living and merely dabble here and there with trading assets, or they follow random textbook style protocols while managing other peoples money, not their own money.  So either way their is a psychological barrier keeping them safe, keeping them from being wrong and losing all THEIR OWN money.  No confidence.  No skin in the game.  Thats a weird saying.

Many will start to get into oil now, after several companies have gained at least 10 or 15 percent.  But the time to really get in was when people were obsessed with falling rig counts and layoffs.

Volume of sellers

By Anora Mahmudova, MarketWatch

Trading volume above 2015 average in each session, so far this year

Wall Street lacks conviction. At least, that’s what one metric shows.

Trading volume have been lower on upbeat trading days compared with days in which stocks swing lower, according to Ryan Larson, head of equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management.

Add this to the about-to-fall-off-the-cliff appearance of the overall market, and you have a negative outlook.  We will see what really happens. 

Little talk about economy

When voting i just focus on who would help create a better economy.  The candidates mostly talk about beating each other.  The main political topics are immigration and terrorism.  Sometimes someone mentions keeping jobs in america.  The media focuses on name calling, so the candidates call each other names since voters are watching their tv's.  The economy is the most important thing to me.  A good one makes everyone happier.

Clinton-
Sanders-
Trump-
Cruz-
Rubio-

Buy the unloved

Finally i heard someone talk who i agree with.  He had a basic strategy to buy what has limited downside risk but large upside risk.  He rattled off several countries hit hard by oil or china.  But of course he makes sense because he started his own asset management firm.  David R. Was his name.

Who is the economy?

When people talk about consumers and how they spend their money, they talk as if wealth is spread evenly.  Right now you can hear opinions on gasoline savings and how that is boosting the economy somehow.  not only is the economy staying the same ovrrall, but Its a tiny boost.  I feel like people sometimes forget who the economy is.  There are over 200 million people driving around in the US, so if each person saves 50 or 100 dollars per month, it adds up to a large amount.  I understand that.  Something like 30 Billion dollars that used to go to gas stations is now going somewhere else.  That is a big shift.  As important 30 billion is, it’s a drop in the bucket.  The US federal government’s tax income is over 2 trillion, and the size of the economy is up around 17 trillion.  So 20 or 30 billion dollars is a tiny slice of the pie.  The wealthiest 20% of our population has about 85% of the total wealth.  Im pretty sure the top 20% don’t care about gas prices.  If I am ever asked how something is affecting the economy, I would relate it to what the top 20% are doing.  Rich people are the economy.  The buying and selling pressure in any market is dependent on what rich people do. 

Me saving $80 a month on gas will shift my money to other industries but the overall impact is the same.  If the overall economy looses steam, we go into recession.  And vise versa.

Oil will rise, recession is coming

All of a sudden there is talk about how a recession is coming. Most used to talk about how its just a correction but now its rolled over to a bear market which might be followed by a recession. Its the whole market predicting the economy thing.  Most are assuming oil will only go up from here. 

From a letter i received from t rowe price, it sounds like i wont be offered any oil stock to buy soon.  Maybe thats ok since i might be buying something else instead.  I need to check my asset list on my 401k again.  I want to update that once a month.

Trend follower

A guy from a fund said his people trade 70 different assets, of all types.  I agree with what he said but he sounded like he is long USD and short oil.  Thats basically the same trade and that trade has pretty much run its course.  He is very diversified and is up about 5% so far this year.  Uhh, sounds like he might struggle to break even this year after he pays his commissions.  He basically repeated things you might read in a textbook.

Hmmm

Another guy raised $18 million and hasnt done anything yet, lol

Hmmm

Fund managers holding cash

Fund managers are holding the most cash on average since the last overall market downturn in 2008. 

I get two things knowing that bit of info.  The people are expecting an overall downturn to occur.  Most of these fund managers cant find an opportunity to buy.

I see several opportunities.  There is usually at least one good opportunity available, especially for fund managers with deep pockets.  Either their trading methods are too constraining or they are not experienced enough to trade specific industries.  I see no reason to hold a bunch of cash.  That is double bad right now since the dollar will generally weaken from its recent highs and one could buy china, oil, Mexican peso and more.  I wish i had the money to compete with those jokers.  I would have a fund with entry based on family/friends or referral only.  People would beg to join.  That could be fun.

Financial movies

I was just thinking about financial drama movies and how one theme is to have a ‘terrorist’ type of person create a disaster so people panic and sell.  Of course the bad guys are short and expecting to profit big from a downturn.  I have seen this situation appear several times like an afterthought for an action movie.   I think the main reason this is written into scripts is because it sounds better for a bad guy to be a short seller.  They do some damage, they cash out and run away.  This was in Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Survivor. 

If a bad guy in a movie wants to manipulate the market and profit from a crash, they should do what people do already in real life.  Create a bubble.  Start shorting when it gets ridiculous and if the bad guy is the source of the bubble, he can simply end his buying pressure once he has shorted enough, then it would crash.  I am not sure where bombs, violence, abduction and all the other typical things you would see in a movie with a financial terrorist would fit into the picture, pun.  It would be a plot for a likeable bad guy or a normal person who was tempted.    This is basically in The Big Short except Its more like some guys took advantage of the bubble others made.

You could have Wall Street 3 or something similar with a likeable bad guy who creates a bubble, gets everyone excited, then shorts it, then maybe does a double buy back to lock in profits and get ready for another expansion.  I guess the whole evil/violent terrorist thing just doesn’t make sense to me in real life which makes it harder to have in a good story.

Other scam plots where money is just stolen or someone breaks laws is common for financial dramas.  Billionaire Boys Club, Wall Street 1 and 2, The Trade, Rogue Trader, Limitless and Boiler Room are all full of white collar law breakers.

You dont even need to break laws or have a terrorist or criminal to have a good story.  Other People's Money, Qicksilver, Trading Places, Dealers, Pi, Cash McCall, Barbarians at the Gate, the Hudsucker Proxy and Margin Call prove a struggle or unique situation is all you need.

 
The more complicated and logical, the better.
Just my thoughts.

An analyst

Wow, so I listened to a Chief Global Strategist give his opinion on everything going on in the markets and I felt like he had no idea what he was saying.  I won’t say his name but he worked for Wheaton and Co. 

 

He referred to vultures circling very high right now but not swooping in for the kill yet.   Vultures don’t kill their prey, they eat dead animals.

He said the S&P500 might go down to 1750 but not any further down.   That means he thinks in this economic downturn the market will only go down 17%, really?  Most of the world’s equity is already lower than that.

He sure stuttered a lot, he sounded nervous.  Would you take the advice of anyone who stutters and sounds nervous? (assuming he doesn’t have a speech impediment)

He said there will be more pain in Houston, referring to the oil crash getting worse and continuing.  Considering I work in that industry and in that city, I really don’t think it could get ‘much worse’ and oil stocks have generally bottomed out around 40% from their highs for a couple months now.  The ‘rich, evil, planet-hating, reckless oil mongers’ are still that.  High ranking officers who do get ‘laid off’ probably leave with wonderful severances.  Of couse most are normal, good people. 

 

If I disagree with your Chief Global Strategist, and I turn out to be more correct and knowledgeable than him, may I have his job or become his supervisor? jk

 

Trading vs Investing

Whats the difference?

Its confusing to me because investors make trades, just more longer term such as a position trader, but people describe each as being "different".  Im a position trader, but im not sure if im an investor.

A trader's "style" refers to the timeframe or holding period in which stocks, commodities or other trading instruments are bought and sold. Traders generally fall into one of four categories:

Position Trader – positions are held from months to years
Swing Trader – positions are held from days to weeks
Day Trader – positions are held throughout the day only with no overnight positions
Scalp Trader – positions are held for seconds to minutes with no overnight positions

So is an investor more longer term than a position trader?  Maybe.

Maybe investing should be called long term position trader to prevent confusion.  I think psychology of older people with money affects the term used.  They think it sounds more safe and responsible to be an investor, rather a trader.

im a position trader, i make bets. Investors make bets but they might be longer than a few years.  If i happened to hold onto a position trader for a few extra years, would i then be an investor?  This is confusing.

Buybacks

About a trillion $ was spent buy public companies to purchase their own shares.  It was a record year.  But as usual, when everyone does something, few do it right.  Companies were buying shares to make their EPS ratio bigger, but they did it when the market plateaued at all time highs.  There was no more buying pressure.  Why make your numbers look good when few are buying?  Is it fun fighting over scraps?  Now there are companies with nice EPS ratios but there stock just keeps drifting down.
It seems like normally companies buy back to coax people into buying and pushing the stock price up.  That sounds ljke a bad reason to buy something but thats how people are.
Maybe they bought back shares for different reasons, like preventing a hostile takeover, to give as a bonus to employees or whatever.

What i can say is i would have argued with all of these executives and cfo's about their timing.  Horrible timing.  The people making these decisions know little.  Instead of going overboard in Q4 2015, they should have waited till Q2 or Q3 of 2016.  They could have gotten similar EPS but at a much cheaper price.  Gopro bought heavily and their stock just tanked.  Noone cared. I guess a newer company like that wont have anyone with real experience.  Established companies have more experience in their staff, they will make bad decisions.  Newer companies will nearly self implode.

Linkedin

Its lost about half of its value after a bad outlook was created.  I have a feeling the execs are trying to kill the stock so they can buy it back real cheap.  It sounds like they elaborated on their bad outlook pretty well, saying anything bad they could.  They would do this if they have big plans in the future. 

Oil supply

To put these storage issues into context, Goldman estimates $1 billion of gold would fit into a bedroom closet. Crude oil of the same value would require 17 supertanker ships that can hold about 2 million barrels of oil each.

OPEC continues to pump oil at full throttle as it seeks to avoid losing further market share to higher cost producers in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Many figured U.S. shale drillers would scale back much faster as prices fell.

The latest EIA figures show that the U.S. pumped 9.32 million barrels per day in November. That's actually up 1% from the year before and not too far below (4%) the April 2015 peak.

So...aramco's strategy did not work.  Oil companies could make a killing in the next few years.  We will never have a problem storing gold.  Opec is desperate.

Several industries are down

Auto makers are down a lot and biotech is close to -40% from its peak.

I wish ford or gm or a biotech company was in my 401k.

Whole market/industry specific

A recession or expansion refers to an entire economy being in the same boom or bust.  The truth is the performance of one or more industries affects others.  Everyone affects everyone.  Different industries are only a little connected, not completely.  So it is possible to have a few industries crash while the overall economy is expanding.

What makes a recession or expansion is many industries moving together.  People talk about recessions, referring to the whole economy but they hardly care about recessions for specific industries.

My point is one should monitor specific industries and buy them low/sell them high.  Maybe some will go down together, and its called a recession, maybe not.  I would buy x industry when its at a routine low whether its the only industry crashing during an expansion or recession.

People talk about the whole economy as if there is nearly 100% correllation and thats not the most expert way to view things.

Bottom in oil

Good chance that oil will only go up from $28 brl.  It went over 34 today.  People are hinting that opec will slow production.  High volatility in oil/oil stocks.

Maybe in a couple months i will stop buying CAM/SLB and just hold it for a while.  Then i would have to buy something else.  There are a few things that im watching.

Similar message from Motley Fool

Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has produced average total returns of about 9% per year. This not only includes the current correction, but the financial crisis, dot-com bubble, and 1987 crash, which all occurred during this time period. The point is, it's safe to say no matter what's happening now, stocks still perform well over the long run.

However, the average investor has produced an average annual total return of less than 2% during the same time period. How can this be?

The problem is that investors are people, and people are emotional. When stocks fall sharply like they've done recently, many people panic and sell in fear of their stocks going down even more. And, when the market is going up and up, that's when investors are most willing to throw their money in. In other words, we all know that the point of investing is to buy low and sell high, but emotion causes investors to do the exact opposite.

......same thing w buffet and i would say.  Im like w buffet but with 99.9% less money and i look at charts, he researches companies in person/corporate raider sometimes.

W buffet

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) (NYSE: BRK-A) has produced average returns of 21.6% per year over the past 50 years, while the average investor garnered about 2% over the past 30. What's the difference? Easy -- the average investor gets nervous when prices fall and sells at a loss. And, when they see everyone else making money on "it" stocks like Tesla and Amazon.com, they buy when prices are already high. In other words, common sense tells us that the goal of investing is to buy low and sell high, but many investors do the exact opposite.

He is politely saying some people trade on emotions and are completely wrong.  Some people create bubbles and burst together. 

Oh My broker...oy ve

All i have been buying for the past 13 months was CAM stock.  My broker sends me emails occasionally saying all my money is in stock and thats risky.  They want me to diversify.  Most of what i can purchase was at or near their highs and are down only 5-25%.  My avg share price in CAM is well below 25%.  Im happy with what i have done.  If i was diversified i would have had worse performance.

Full of bull

By Shawn Langlois, MarketWatch

Hey, don’t let a few market hiccups to start the year bum you out too much. Strategists predict gains by the end of the year! Just like they did last year. And the year before that. And the year before that, all the way back to 1998, according to one Georgetown professor who crunched the numbers during that time frame to come to this conclusion: The Wall Street pros are “full of bull.”

Salil Mehta, in a deep dive for the Statistical Ideas blog, examined 186 public forecasts, which he culled from 19 years of media coverage. For starters, the strategists have called for a positive year more than 95% of the time, while the market has only been up 73% of the time.

So...analysts pretty much say the same thing no matter what.  They are usually not traders themselves, so they dont have real experience.   They prefer to predict gains so they can be positive petes, since noone likes a negative nancy.  they simply extrapolate good trends or consider downturns to be temporary, to hold onto an  extrapolated trend they are married to.

The best advise i can give is to either save your money in gauranteed, low return assets or follow the advice of a consistently profitable trader.  Listening to advisors, analysts and random other people will keep your gains random, messy, volatile, unpredictable and  emotionally driven.  Do you ask random people to perform surgery on u?  No, u get a surgeon.  Dont ask random people to tell u where to put ur money.  Get a trader.  So much logic is lost when people handle wealth.

How to not be

There are four psychological stages that people go through during a bear market. Right now, investors know the market is struggling but most believe it will come back. In fact, many see this as a buying opportunity. Here are the four stages:

Stage 1: Denial

Right now, we’re in the denial stage. Anyone who is bullish is too stubborn to change his or her view. Many people have their head in the sand, and some may not even look at their January statements. Many believe the market will come back. Right now, many are still buying the dips, which does not work in a bear market. This is similar to what has happened to oil.

Stage 2: High Anxiety

In this stage, many investors are like a deer in the headlights. They are frozen and nervous but don’t do anything. They are told by brokers and financial experts to stay calm and don’t panic. We haven’t reached this stage yet.

Stage 3: Fear

In this stage, the rampant bulls finally realize they are in trouble. If they have bought stocks on margin, they might be getting calls from their broker to add money to losing positions. In this stage, they are watching in fear as their portfolio burns. They reluctantly start to take action as fear increases. Often they say to themselves, “When my stock gets back to even, I will sell.”

Stage 4: Panic

This is what I call the “uncle” stage. This is when panicked investors throw in the towel and take action. They want to get out of the market while they still have something left. At this stage, there is huge downside volume and double-digit declines on the indexes. At the end of Stage 4, many people vow to never buy stocks again. We are not even close to this stage yet. Typically, we hit bottom when investors capitulate after losses of 20% to 50% in their stock portfolios.

I like this.  The 4 step plan to be a horrible tader.  Its what i had to grow out of.  Most of us start out this way when we marry a stock for the first time.  I never really got to step 4. Gabita es bonita.

Dropping

Sp500 already dipped past the battle of the alamo.  There was a gap down, followed by steady selling.

Soon, the war of 1812, louisiana purchase, revolutionary war and onward to the founding of new orleans in 1718.

Asia

India, which is expected to grow faster than many Asian countries, has also been caught up in the recent global stock market rout. The country’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex  had lost 6.3% of its value this year through Friday. On Monday, the Sensex was trading slightly lower.

The stabilization seen in Chinese markets on Monday may be short lived. Investors expect China to report on Tuesday that the economy grew at around 7% last year — the slowest pace in a quarter-century.

Meanwhile, some analysts say that a fall in the Shanghai benchmark to 2,500 from the current 2,913.84 level could trigger widespread margin calls. Margins loans — money borrowed by investors to fund share purchases — fueled a rally in Shanghai early last year. But when the market began to crumble, brokerages began calling investors to pay back loans, making losses snowball.

I think its a good time to start buying the shanghai index, and probably to keep buying it for a little while.  Its around 2900 or half off from its last major peak.  Buy below 3000, sell above 5000.  Pretty obvious trade to me.  Indian stocks will crash after the us crashes.  The us is propped up by cheap gas, maybe india is propped up by cheap commodities.

Time travel

This morning the sp500 was at ww2, 1940's, but has dipped down to antebellum, 1880's.  We are at the support level for the 10% correction from august 2015.

If we head down to the civil war, this crash is probable.  If we hit the battle of the Alamo, i would assume the magna carta is next, 1215.

But we will see.  I dont trade on predictions.  I make decisions after an event takes place.  If the market never crashes, ill never buy.  Im in no rush.  The oil crash is giving me plenty of chances to buy low, and it is dragging out.

From the Media

People are using the word 'rout' way too much lately.  China's market rout, commodity rout, the rout in oil prices.  Before this winter, that word was very rarely used.

People are trading in their priuses for range rovers, funny.  Basically true even though it makes no sense.  People who are bad with money rationalize spending all their 'extra' savings.  75% of lottery winners spend all their winnings within a few years.  Pathetic.

Regional losses for 2015

Openfolio, a site on which investors share information about themselves and their investments, most Americans didn’t meet that low threshold. Only one-third of investors made money on the year, according to Openfolio, and the average American lost 3.1%.

There are some notable regional differences in this data, too: perhaps not surprising, given it’s the seat of Wall Street, the Northeast did the best over 2015 with an average decline of 1.7%. More interesting: The Southeast did the poorest.

In general, investors tend to invest in companies that have headquarters near where the live, a trend Openfolio data has shown in the past. Investors in the Northeast, for example, are more heavily invested in financial companies than are others; investors in the West in technology. And for investors in the South, it’s energy. Oil saw what felt like an unending crash in 2015 and took energy stocks along with it: Energy was -- by a huge margin -- the worst performing S&P sector, ending the year down 22%. Overexposure to energy in Southern investors’ portfolios is the main reason that region saw an average decline of nearly 4%.

I made over 20% last year, im glad i dont think like most people.

My beautiful wife tells me how to trade.

Worst opening week ever

Altogether, the global stock markets lost $2.3 trillion in market cap in the first four days of 2016, according Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Some $12 billion in funds fled U.S. equities, the largest in 17 weeks, he said. Tech-focused funds were the most severely hit, with $600 million exiting, the biggest in 19 weeks.

So far its a similar drop to the one back in august but hardly anyone is saying its just a correction this time.  Maybe we will really go down for awhile.

ChineseCircuit breakers...

Not too different from a chinese finger trap.

China sold heavy after opening and hit its 7% limit. Third time this week.  The shanghai comp is at 3125 but i heard a third of their hedge funds will be forced to start selling.  Sounds like a strong push to 3000. Its all time high was a bit over 6000 back in 2007, followed by a drop to the 1740's.  Scary, yet awesome. Over a 70% plunge.  I doubt that will happen again.  Maybe 2007 was their 1929.  2015 is their 2000.

Failure is the mother of success.

China panic week

REUTERS

China has shut its share market for the day after a meltdown in early trade.

Shares plunged 5% when the market opened, triggering a new “circuit-breaker” closure of markets for 15 minutes.

When trade resumed, the selling continued, with the benchmark CSI300 falling through 7%, triggering an automatic shutdown of trading for the rest of the day.

The market was only open for around 15 minutes of trade.

It’s the second time this week that China has had to shut its markets under the new rules designed to avoid panic selling of shares. But today, the circuit-breakers were invoked much faster than they were earlier in the week.

Maybe the shanghai comp index will hit 2500, or lower.  Its basically china's 1929 crash.  its really bad.  Chinas brightest minds and most influential communists have no control.  the government has wasted tons of money trying to prop up the market.  Its really the first big embarrassment china has had during my life.  They should have let americans and brits influence their market the way they do in macau casinos and hong kong finance.  Pride is a sin.  A few politicisns get rich, everyone else gets poor.

Industry Monitoring

Industry monitoring should be done all the time.

Oil is down about 40%
Retail is down about 35%
Agriculture is down about 25%
Autos are down about 20%
Tech is also down 20%
Banks are down about 10%
Food is down about 10%

Military is at all time highs

They are starting to pile up.  When enough get close to -40%, the broad market crashes

Will it keep going?

The market rise that began in March 2009 is now the third longest in history. That argues for shifting some of your stock assets to stable, large companies. Ned Davis Research has found that while small companies have the most sizzle in the first two-thirds of a bull, the advantage shifts to the big blue chips in the final third. Shares in large-company stocks also tend to be less volatile. That’s important now. “The bull can continue to run for another one to two years,” says Anthony Valeri, investment strategist for LPL Financial. “The caveat is you should expect volatility to pick up.”

I doubt it.  Its funny how people refer to the market as continuing to rise when it has not risen in several months.  How can the bull market keep going up when it has been going sideways.  Equities lost steam awhile ago.  Its not hard to believe that confidence, meaning prices, have been propped up by low oil prices.  But that will create and is creating long term problems which will gaurantee a quick crash.

I love Gabita.  My wife is wonderful.

Hello 2016

Good riddance, 2015.
Nearly 70% of investors lost money this year, according to Openfolio, an app that allows people to track their investment performance and compare their portfolio with other users.

U.S. markets had their worst year since the financial crisis. No wonder making money was tough.

"While the S&P 500 is on track to end 2015 almost exactly where it started, earnings have deteriorated," says Matt Coffina of Morningstar.

My wife is beautiful.
My assets look pretty good too.
2015 was mostly good for me, 2016 should be very interesting.