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You have to survive

You have to survive
Every day is a battle, survival is rule #1

Friday, June 24, 2016

The British Exit


So British citizens voted to completely leave the EU by a small margin.  I think actual sentiment barely leaned toward remaining inside the EU but those people were not as diligent about getting out to vote.  It is the aspect of voting people forget about and polls don't really show it.  There is not too much action going on outside of some reshuffling between currencies, stocks and the like.  There are fake rumors about layoffs and relocating.

The exit itself doesn't mean much other than some technical changes will occur, mostly British will govern themselves.  For now it probably is better that they leave the EU.  When you become a state of a larger entity, it should be because it is mutually beneficial.  The state should be above average compared to the existing states, which Britain was.  The larger entity overall should be better than the state overall which it is not.  And that is the problem.  It really wont be worth it for Britain or any developed nation to join the EU until the EU has uniform policies like a real nation.  Right now its just a big bag of mixed treaties and recommended fiscal policies.  There is little accountability and in the end Germany is the real beneficiary.  The financial crisis of 2008 left several countries with a much smaller economy, strike one.  The migrant crisis  has caused violence, vandalism, no-go zones and has pissed off taxpayers, strike two.  I guess they will trudge along until they fail at another crisis, which would be strike three.

The most important thing I got out of this whole European bureacratic squabbling is that the former mayor of London who helped the Brexit campaign has really cool hair.  A big, randomly combed, mop of hair.

Monday, June 20, 2016

Financial Farmer

Lately I have been thinking about how I like to enter fairly long trades which may last a few years or so.  To me it is like growing trees.  I plant a seed or branch and wait.  I may water and nourish it for a while to get it going but at some point it will look like it is growing well.  This is like the period when Im buying low.  Eventually i may dig it up and sell the whole tree but if I have several trees growing they will be sold at different times.  This is like me having several trades going.  That is basically my diversification and it would create a fairly stable capital gain income. I want to plant a row of trees and eventually I will expect to sell a different one each year.  Right now I only have two trades going but I may enter a third trade next year depending on if China starts moving up.  If China does go up overall, then I will stop buying DFEMX and just wait to sell it.  At that time I could buy something else that is down.  I have heard of a trader comparing their style to being a farmer.  I am not sure if it exactly how I am looking at it.  Over time I will look forward to adding more and more trades.  I should get to the point where I am always about to enter something new and exit something old.  I am not there yet.  I am still just buying more and more of one thing until I am forced to buy something else.  That probably won't happen again.  I have two trees on my farm.  My choice of seeds are limited but I may look into opening a Traditional IRA if it would let me buy a better variety of seeds/industries.  I will worry about that a little later.  It will be a nice problem to have.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Brexit vote on June 23

By William James, Freya Berry and Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) - The world's biggest banks including Citi and Goldman Sachs will draft in senior traders to work through the night following Britain's referendum on EU membership, set to be among the most volatile 24 hours for markets in a quarter of a century.

A vote to leave the European Union on June 23 would spook investors by undermining post-World War Two attempts at European integration and placing a question mark over the future of the United Kingdom and its $2.9 trillion economy.

Its the superbowl of british financial assets.  One day people poll to remain, then a week later it goes the other way.

It is a big deal because people want to be ready to move in the right direction.  They are not sure what will happen.  Some might be stressing out over it.  I would think positive.  There are very few potential outcomes in price movement.  Up, down, and nowhere.  Brexit wont have a big impact on me but even if it did , all i would do to prepare is the usual. In My longer term trades, brexit wont change final outcomes but it could change short term movement.  Short term movement means very little to me. 

Thursday, June 2, 2016

Auto Sales

Financing for the average new car is longer than ever.  The avg cost is over 30k which is high.

Today i saw a guy in a new small BMW.  He used to drive a small Infiniti which was possibly 5 years old.  I guess it was getting too old and worn out for him.  He could be leasing a new $35k car every few years or buying one every several years.  Either way he is getting a bad deal.  Maybe he is having tons of fun driving through traffic, you never know.  Im assuming he would say that he loves his new little BMW.  He probably used to love the Infiniti.  If you really love a car you would keep it for 15 or 20 years and occasionally fix what breaks.  I would not pay about $700 a month for something i dont plan to keep for a long time. 

People seem vulnerable to a downturn.  Average folks are riding high.  Nothing to worry about.

Monday, May 30, 2016

Miami

Another Bubble Has Burst: The Miami Luxury Condo Market Is A “Ticking Timebomb”
Tyler Durden
Last year we warned that the luxury condo market in Miami was cooling down, and we also noted that one of the mail culprits was the fact that foreign buyers (especially Brazilians) were seeing their buying power crushed by the appreciating dollar.

Today, the bubble has officially burst and the Miami luxury condo market is a complete trainwreck. There are 3,397 condominiums available in the downtown Miami area, and at current prices it is estimated that it would take 29 months to sell those. A strong US Dollar has continued to force South American investors to unload recently built condos, adding inventory to an area where 8,000 units are under construction and nine towers have already been completed since 2013.

There was a similar real estate downturn in Florida prior to the 1929 equity crash. The wealthy are getting pinched.  Price per square foot doubled over the past few years but now the party is over.  Half of those gains could dissapear in a few months time.  Hmmmm, interesting.

Thursday, May 12, 2016

The Clintons are Funny

Chelsea Clinton husband Marc Mezvinsky won’t apologize to investors
Ben Ashford For Dailymail.com

Mezvinsky has refused to apologize to investors yesterday - despite losing nearly $25 million of their money in a gamble on the Greek economy.

Those investors include wealthy Clinton family supporters, some of whom have contributed campaign money to either Bill or Hillary
Mezvinsky  persuaded clients to pour cash into the struggling European country in the hope it would bounce back and deliver massive profits.  When Daily Mail Online asked Mezvinsky - outside his $10 million Manhattan apartment -  he refused to discuss the Greek tragedy.

Marc's father  Edward Mezvinsky, pleaded guilty to 31 charges of felony fraud in 2001 and spent five years in federal prison.  He admitted scamming his friends and family out of $10 million in a Ponzi scheme.

And to top it off, Chelsea's mom in fairly close to becoming President, oh my lord...so rediculous.  This article made me laugh.