sfsamperi.blogspot.com

You have to survive

You have to survive
Every day is a battle, survival is rule #1

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Missed a small gain in /ES

I do not see a reasonable way for me to have gotten into the small move Thursday morning.  I am comfortable just assuming i would have missed it.  Price basically flatlined after moving up a little in the morning, so overall the day was boring and maybe that is why I missed it.  I would have required a little more of a pullback to support but that means it would have to have been a more volatile day.


Wednesday, August 20, 2014

/ES 7 point gain missed under current method

I would have missed a nice 7 point gain today if I forced myself to wait until 8:30am to enter.  I have realized that was a pointless restriction.  I enter based the hourly chart so that is why 8am is important to me.

Ok, now i really feel like it has come together, not only to keep losses small when I lose, but also to increase the odds of having the correct direction, plus I should still get a good price for my entries.

Hourly S/R lines, usually a channel or triangle.
Use first S/R line that is tested after 8am.
Enter after 8 am on 5 min chart, exit using trailing pivots.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

/ES .75 point loss

Trying to short using a channel as S/R from the 1 hour chart.  There was no decent push down and I was stopped out with a slight close past my first trailing stop. -.75 points.

Examples of entering using 1 hour S/R lines


Enter at 8:30 or later, quit trying to trade after 10:30 if nothing happens.
Trade assuming a reversal at S/R lines, enter at S/R lines.  
Use the first  S/R that gets tested after 8:00.

I really want to test this out in real time tomorrow morning, well in 5 hours since I can't sleep.



Sunday, August 17, 2014

/ES 5 point gain / Method Update

Use 1 hr S/R lines, the most recent
Enter assuming reversal on 5 min chart
Exit with 2 point initial stop loss and trailing stop using most recent pivot highs/lows.


This is essentially the same thing i have been doing but i am increasing odds of have an actual trade because of the 1 hour major S/R lines instead of minor 5 minute S/R lines.  Bigger time frames are more important.


5 point gain for Monday 8-18-14


Friday, August 15, 2014

/ES 9 point gain

Using 30 min S/R as entry.  If i enter, assuming a reversal, at the first 30 min S/R line that should increase all my statistics.  Today I would have made about 9 points.


Researching

I know I get distracted easily and my imagination is rediculous but i have been thinking.
What I like about the way I have been trading is that it really tests and shows off my exit strategy.  The comparison between various sized gains and smallish losses means gains overall.  But i think it is time for me to increase my odds.  So i will add one more basic concept.  Reversals at major S/R lines.  Instead of just using minor S/R for my entry and letting whatever random trend tell me what direction to go in,  I will base my direction on reversing from the first major S/R that price hits after the open.

Major S/R lines drawn using recent peaks and troughs on 30 min chart.  Various lines can be drawn.  I will enter on 5 min chart, assuming a reversal at whichever line price hits first after the market opens.

It makes sense to me that It should increase the odds of me getting a gain and the overall size of my gains.  Looking back at previous days this works very well but now I will test it in real time for the next few weeks or so.



Thursday, August 14, 2014

/ES 2 point loss Wednesday, no trade Thursday

I made a mistake on Tuesday, I should not have traded at all since I was unsure about what I should do.

I lost 2 points on Wednesday, a legitimate loss.  I dont mind the legitimate losses that "just go the wrong way" and i take 1 or 2 points for the loss.  But i really don't like the losses I have sometimes which are based on some mistake.

Today, i would not have traded since I was unsure about what I should do.  it was not the set up that I like and base all my odds on so I skipped today.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

/ES 2.5 point loss

I did not have a small channel to base my buy/sell decision on at the open this time.  I made a mistake and tried to find some new reason to base my decision on at the last minute.  Maybe it is fine to look back at the trend but Im sure I made a mistake at that.  In the end, I should not do anything different from what I am sure about while trading.  I know better and I feel bad about it.

2.5 point loss.  after entering I was stopped out very soon.

Monday, August 11, 2014

/ES 2 point loss $$

Price was moving slow, i sold short at resistance on what looked like a small falling channel going into the open, I was stopped out after a close past a trailing stop but with the market order to cover I ended up exiting right at my initial stop of 2 points.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Sticking to my plan using real money

I must follow what I have been doing because overall it works very well for me.  Over the summer i found several mistakes that I had made but almost every mistake would have been avoided if i had just followed my plan.  I get distracted easily and I have a vivid imagination.  Even if something has been wonderful lately I can easily consider changing almost everything because I am very interested in anything related to trading.

I must follow my plan every morning and change nothing.

small uptrend going into open = buy at support
small downtrend....................= sell at resistance

trend = squiggly movement, usually a near perfect channel shape, has peaks and troughs

enter at or near market open 8:30 am central time.

exit after a close past 2 point stop loss or trailing stop
trailing stop = new recent trough (when buying) or new recent peak (when selling)

Because of my exit strategy where I want to keep losses small but let my gains get big, if I only had a 50% chance of being correct on market direction that would be fine.  By choosing my direction based on a small trend leading into the open i believe that I can get a little better than 50% on direction, maybe more like 65% ....hard to tell so far.  I just know that all summer after trading in real time on most days or looking back to see what I would have done and the result, there would be a mixture of losses, gains, a break-even trade and a couple of missed gains.  My gains were at least 50% of my trades and there is a significant profit, all based on trading 1 S&P 500 emini contract, 1 trade per day.  I would have had a net gain of about $1400 for the month of July alone.

I will probably trade with real money soon but nothing will change.  I am just hoping that my first few trades are good so I do not need to worry about adding more to cover the margin requirement.

Friday, August 8, 2014

/ES 1.5 point loss

Price became choppy and quiet after I entered.  Barely hanging in there half the time but eventually I took a $75 loss.

Thursday, August 7, 2014

/ES 1.25 point loss

It barely hung in there for a little while, then it looked decent, then it sold down hard and I was stopped out for 1.25 points.

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Missed an entry for a great trade

It would have been a nice, big trade which I feel like I am due for, a 12 point gain if I had gotten in at the open but I was waiting for a small pullback and it never came.  I had a limit order to buy and price just shot up and didnt even hesitate until noon.

I missed another good trade a few weeks ago, pretty much the same scenario.  I guess It will have to happen sometimes if I strictly follow my technical trading system.


Tuesday, August 5, 2014

/ES 3.25 point loss

My losses are averaging double what they were during the early summer.  But i dont mind as long as my rewards double too.  I haven't had a big gain lately but I think I am due for one this week.  My trade today looked good at first but then I was stopped out as the day became sideways.  I took a 3.25 point loss.


Monday, August 4, 2014

/ES 3 point gain selling short

Price literally froze a few different times but overall the volatility was high.  I sold short and after 45 minutes of me thinking the bottom should be ready to give out, it started dropped and I exited for a 3 point gain after price dropped well, then pulled back a lot to close past a trailing stop.


Saturday, August 2, 2014

Iceland

I briefly watched a documentary about how some greedy guys in Iceland, calling themselves the New Vikings, had a fairly significant influence over the entire world during the 2008 financial crisis.  An Icelandic bank became worthless and that triggered the rest of the poorly run banks in the world to crash in 2008.  I like how the building that was used for a meeting which ended communism in Russia was down the street from a beautiful, but vacant building which was built on lies during the 2008 financial crisis and when Iceland's finances exploded.

Friday, August 1, 2014

/ES 4 point loss

Another big day.  Unfortunately price went the wrong way at first to stop me out before dropping really well like I wanted.  From peak to trough it dropped over 22 points after I was stopped out.  As I would expect, losses are bigger when rewards are bigger.  4 point loss, possibly a little less.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

/ES 3.25 point loss

It just didnt go in the right direction for me.  I took a large (for me) loss of 3.25 points but I feel good about it after what happened all morning.  Price steadily marched down to and past noon.  I missed a big down day which im sure some people bought like I did but kept holding.  I dont mind having a fairly small loss if its a big down day.

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

/ES 1.75 loss (trading differently, probably wont do it anymore)

Another interesting morning for me.  If i had traded the way I have been, which is entering at S/R levels of short term trends leading up to the open, I would have made 3 or 4 points.  This morning I tried something different, basically ignoring when the open was and buying at a more major S/R level, it happened to not work out.  What I see is trading that way would probably work overall also but it would mean fewer entries and probably bigger risk/bigger rewards.

I will stick to entering at or near the open, buying at rising support or selling at falling resistance, from a small trend leading up to the open.  I should have made about 3 points today but officially i will chalk it up as the loss i earned. I lost 1.75 points today.

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

/ES 1.75 point loss

Interesting chart for S&P500 emini 5 min  this morning.  As of 8:20 I only wanted to buy because I saw a large uptrend, a big weird rising channel.  I made a late entry around 10 am when price appeared to be close to support but only after calming down.  Just before price plunged to support but I would not buy on a plunge because I don't know what will happen with that much momentum.  So then I was stopped out fairly soon after, then price took off like I wanted it to.

I made a mistake.  I bought too high because I did not draw an accurate rising channel.  I just didn't see it.  Now assuming I saw it and anticipated the correct support, I am not sure if i would have entered because price barely hit the support I THINK i should have been using.  In the end, I should be more careful with drawing S/R levels and I lost 1.75 points today.

Monday, July 28, 2014

No trade today

I was looking to buy at support after the open but price was falling so quick to it I chose not to get in.  I dont enter when price is volatile.  It turned out to drop well this morning so i would not have lasted long buying anyways.

Friday, July 25, 2014

/ES 1.5 point loss

I got in early just after 8am,  things turned sour for me right before the opening bell.  1.5 point loss.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

/ES 1.25 point loss

There wasn't the greatest rising channel but it looked good enough to use.  I bought a few minutes before the open near support and instantly price went the wrong way.  Judging by the volatility of orders within the first 10 minutes, it looks like it could be a very sloppy day.  Out with a 1.25 point loss.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

/ES 1 point loss

Everything was looking great after my premarket entry but after the open there was decent selling pressure that stopped me out.  I cant get them all.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

/ES 4.25 point gain

My trade barely hung in there half the time but after a really long morning, it finally closed past a trailing stop to give me 4.25 points.  Slow, boring but a good trade.


Monday, July 21, 2014

/ES 4.5 point gain selling

Price was trending downward in a falling channel, I sold at a resistance level just after 8:50 am, then price steadily fell down.  Several trailing stops were created and I ended up with a 4.5 point gain.  Nice.


Saturday, July 19, 2014

/ES downtrend should start by December

I'm checking out the $/ES chart on #Mobile Trader with TD Ameritrade http://www.tdameritrade.com/mobileapps

Im pretty sure the us economy did not actually grow by 50% in the last 6 months.   Shorting should become common soon.

Friday, July 18, 2014

/ES 16 point gain for the week (about)

Monday- small gain, 1 point
Tuesday- medium gain, 6 points
Wednesday- small loss , -1 point
Thursday- small gain, 1 point
Friday- large gain, 9 points





I traded on friday in real time using my phone but I lost 3.25 points instead of making about 9 points because my phone confused me on how big the rising channel was.  I thought it was very big and ok to trade against the trend by selling short but I was wrong.  The channel was thin and an obvious BUY situation.  Now I know I have to always use a real computer.  On friday i should have done well.

Trade with the trend, enter at S/R near the open, exit after a close past trailing stop.

Friday, July 11, 2014

/ES 2.25 point loss

I bought at a good looking support area.  In the first 5 minutes i could tell orders were all over the place so I lost faith in this trade pretty quick.  Suddenly it surged up, then it surged down, i was stopped out.

Thursday, July 10, 2014

/ES breakeven short

I sold short at decent resistance.  There was no strong action and I was calmly stopped out.  It was looking like a 2 point loss for me but b y the time my exit order went through price moved toward my entry.  No gain, no loss, breakeven.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

/ES 1.25 point gain

I had to miss the opening this morning because I was called in for a project at UHY Advisors but if I did trade I would have made about 1.25 points shorting.  It turned out to be another boring summer sideways kind of day. 

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

/es 3 point loss

Bought near support and price tanked.  I was stopped out instantly.  I really felt like watching a good trade today.....3 point loss

Monday, July 7, 2014

/ES .75 point loss Shorting

I lost $37.50 worth by shorting because there was no real follow through, just some slow,boring consolidation.  Then price decided to push up a little higher, i hit my stop loss and exited.  Then price decided to take a decent dive....the move i was wanting.  I was correct on which direction to trade but the morning action evaded me today.  : (

Friday, July 4, 2014

Pre-4th of july randomness

People started trading an hour early and there would have been no clear entry for me and it was a very volatile push up.  I chose not to get in.  If it ever feels strange and different I probably wont trade.  Yhat is when you cant calculate risk anymore. 

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

/ES 1 point gain

By 9 am i figured it was going to be a pointless, sideways, dull day.   But i hung in there and the market really fought for me to have a 1 point gain, $50, after 3 hours.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Looking back

So depressing how I did not make one post on my trading blog while teaching during the 2013-2014 school year. Yuck, glad that is over.
Im talking with my beautiful wife about what money I might put in my trading account right now.$5k would cover 1 /es contract.
I want to make my dad proud.   He knew how much I was getting into trading and it would definitely follow my family's sicilian-entreprenuerial-tradition. 

11.25 point gain

Beautiful, worry free, big 5 minute trade.  Price opened at support of a decent little rising channel.....support = buy it stephen!  This morning turned out really well.  The big trades like these are the real gains I will make for my account.  The last week or so would have 'struggled' to give me about $700 in gains, but then a day like this nearly matches the last 6 trading days combined.

It doesn't always work out, just like yesterday.  That was a 2.5 point loss.  That is chump change for /ES standards but it kinda hurts when you had been making gains of only 6 points, and then 1.75 points.  But an 11 point gain like today is what makes sense of everything.  I get into trades and focus on getting out.  As long as I limit the size of my losses, I can let the gains keep going and going like today.

Why did it go up?  I don't know or care why, i just look at what is happening now visually.

Monday, June 30, 2014

/es 2.5 point loss

price went trendless after open, possible change of direction to punch through resistance line i was selling from. -2.5 points.  sadness.

Friday, June 27, 2014

/es 1.75 point gain going long, quick trade

Decent little trade.  Price bars did not calm down once they peaked so there was a large retracement when price triggered my exit by closing below a recent dip.

Something is better than nothing.  At least price moved in the general direction I thought it would.

/ES morning set up


Thursday, June 26, 2014

6 point gain /ES short

Sold because it opened near resistance, turned out to be a decent trade.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

I like Apple's price, just sitting there on support...


Monday, June 16, 2014



I posted examples of excellent/easy set ups to find.  Basically, I want to "just get in" and then be real defensive.  I would not mind making money (of course) or NOT MAKING MONEY, I just really do not want to LOSE money.  I always remember, losing 5% or more of your value starts to require much more then a 5% gain to make it back...YOU HAVE TO KEEP YOUR LOSSES SMALL!

Taken from the previous 2 days of the S&P 500 futures 5-min chart.  Very basic.....S/R lines formed by using at least two points.  My entry these days would not come after a bar close or type of bar reversal....just any time price is at the S/R line.  Initial stop would be a close past a recent peak, trade exit would be a reversing close past any trailing peak.

I want to look at  more daily charts because I don't have time to watch minute charts during the day.

Looking at charts again!

Now that im not teaching, I miraculously have time to look at charts again.  Keeping track of several stocks on my phone.  I set alerts.  If alerts are triggered then they would be considered "high probability" entry points.  Which is the only kind of entry I would make.

Saturday, July 20, 2013

back to daily chart, watching crude, channel lines

I checked out day trades for the past several days.  always cool at first until I remember how tedious it is.  Seems like I would get the same percentage of wins but the trades would be much smaller.  small trades bore me, I like the big, long trades on the daily chart better but its hard to practice on a daily chart.

Watching light sweet crude oil (texas tea?) futures.  it is close to weekly resistance, I would short it on daily chart if it inches up some more and then closes down one day. 

I like just focusing on where horizontal S/R lines are on my charts but sometimes there is too much of an uptrend or downtrend and I think I will start drawing channels to see if those new hi's or low's are still hitting something.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

no entry signal for RBOB gasoline futures, it just kept pushing up so I won't be shorting that again.  I took another loss with /ES on 4 hr chart.  exited at 1654 for an 8 point loss.  that is a big loss for me.  that is my 4th consecutive loss.  whatever.  next?

hindsight is awesommmmmme!

My recent 8 point loss on the /ES 4 hr chart broke one of my rules.  The resistance I used was not what I consider "major" on the Daily chart, instead it was only major on the 4 hr chart.  I need to follow my rules...I should not have entered in the first place.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Last trade was a loss exited RBOB Gasoline futures yesterday at 2.9447.  Watching for another possible short entry now that it has moved up to an old support/new resistance.

Entered short trade for /ES on 4 hr chart at 1646, tight initial stop at 1649, still watching it right now for the drop.......its thinking about it but hasn't commited yet.  news for today is a strong dollar is hurting profits.  maybe that's enough....

Monday, July 8, 2013

I found a short entry for RBOB gasoline futures on 4hr chart, short at 2.871, initial stop loss at 2.91.

Most people would want to see gasoline prices drop.  Paying $60 a week just to drive to work is not a good thing.  It would be fun to have a lot of money and become a famous trader known for shorting gasoline/oil prices.  I would be a hero among men.  Working class guys would buy me drinks everywhere I went.  The government would like me since I would prevent the already ridiculously wealthy oil companies from sucking more wealth from average americans.  That's how you spread out wealth.  You spread out wealth by competition, not an unfair tax system like in socialism.  Competition keeps people healthy.  Huge taxes is a gorilla on your back.

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Two nice short opportunities...

Gasoline futures could drop well on daily chart over the next week.
S&P500 futures could drop well on the 15 min chart  on Monday.