Thursday, August 21, 2014
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Ok, now i really feel like it has come together, not only to keep losses small when I lose, but also to increase the odds of having the correct direction, plus I should still get a good price for my entries.
Hourly S/R lines, usually a channel or triangle.
Use first S/R line that is tested after 8am.
Enter after 8 am on 5 min chart, exit using trailing pivots.
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Sunday, August 17, 2014
Enter assuming reversal on 5 min chart
Exit with 2 point initial stop loss and trailing stop using most recent pivot highs/lows.
This is essentially the same thing i have been doing but i am increasing odds of have an actual trade because of the 1 hour major S/R lines instead of minor 5 minute S/R lines. Bigger time frames are more important.
5 point gain for Monday 8-18-14
Friday, August 15, 2014
What I like about the way I have been trading is that it really tests and shows off my exit strategy. The comparison between various sized gains and smallish losses means gains overall. But i think it is time for me to increase my odds. So i will add one more basic concept. Reversals at major S/R lines. Instead of just using minor S/R for my entry and letting whatever random trend tell me what direction to go in, I will base my direction on reversing from the first major S/R that price hits after the open.
Major S/R lines drawn using recent peaks and troughs on 30 min chart. Various lines can be drawn. I will enter on 5 min chart, assuming a reversal at whichever line price hits first after the market opens.
It makes sense to me that It should increase the odds of me getting a gain and the overall size of my gains. Looking back at previous days this works very well but now I will test it in real time for the next few weeks or so.
Thursday, August 14, 2014
I lost 2 points on Wednesday, a legitimate loss. I dont mind the legitimate losses that "just go the wrong way" and i take 1 or 2 points for the loss. But i really don't like the losses I have sometimes which are based on some mistake.
Today, i would not have traded since I was unsure about what I should do. it was not the set up that I like and base all my odds on so I skipped today.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
2.5 point loss. after entering I was stopped out very soon.
Monday, August 11, 2014
Saturday, August 9, 2014
I must follow my plan every morning and change nothing.
small uptrend going into open = buy at support
small downtrend....................= sell at resistance
trend = squiggly movement, usually a near perfect channel shape, has peaks and troughs
enter at or near market open 8:30 am central time.
exit after a close past 2 point stop loss or trailing stop
trailing stop = new recent trough (when buying) or new recent peak (when selling)
Because of my exit strategy where I want to keep losses small but let my gains get big, if I only had a 50% chance of being correct on market direction that would be fine. By choosing my direction based on a small trend leading into the open i believe that I can get a little better than 50% on direction, maybe more like 65% ....hard to tell so far. I just know that all summer after trading in real time on most days or looking back to see what I would have done and the result, there would be a mixture of losses, gains, a break-even trade and a couple of missed gains. My gains were at least 50% of my trades and there is a significant profit, all based on trading 1 S&P 500 emini contract, 1 trade per day. I would have had a net gain of about $1400 for the month of July alone.
I will probably trade with real money soon but nothing will change. I am just hoping that my first few trades are good so I do not need to worry about adding more to cover the margin requirement.
Friday, August 8, 2014
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
I missed another good trade a few weeks ago, pretty much the same scenario. I guess It will have to happen sometimes if I strictly follow my technical trading system.
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
Monday, August 4, 2014
Saturday, August 2, 2014
Friday, August 1, 2014
Thursday, July 31, 2014
It just didnt go in the right direction for me. I took a large (for me) loss of 3.25 points but I feel good about it after what happened all morning. Price steadily marched down to and past noon. I missed a big down day which im sure some people bought like I did but kept holding. I dont mind having a fairly small loss if its a big down day.
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
I will stick to entering at or near the open, buying at rising support or selling at falling resistance, from a small trend leading up to the open. I should have made about 3 points today but officially i will chalk it up as the loss i earned. I lost 1.75 points today.
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
I made a mistake. I bought too high because I did not draw an accurate rising channel. I just didn't see it. Now assuming I saw it and anticipated the correct support, I am not sure if i would have entered because price barely hit the support I THINK i should have been using. In the end, I should be more careful with drawing S/R levels and I lost 1.75 points today.
Monday, July 28, 2014
Friday, July 25, 2014
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Monday, July 21, 2014
Saturday, July 19, 2014
Friday, July 18, 2014
Tuesday- medium gain, 6 points
Wednesday- small loss , -1 point
Thursday- small gain, 1 point
Friday- large gain, 9 points
Friday, July 11, 2014
Thursday, July 10, 2014
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Tuesday, July 8, 2014
Monday, July 7, 2014
I lost $37.50 worth by shorting because there was no real follow through, just some slow,boring consolidation. Then price decided to push up a little higher, i hit my stop loss and exited. Then price decided to take a decent dive....the move i was wanting. I was correct on which direction to trade but the morning action evaded me today. : (
Friday, July 4, 2014
People started trading an hour early and there would have been no clear entry for me and it was a very volatile push up. I chose not to get in. If it ever feels strange and different I probably wont trade. Yhat is when you cant calculate risk anymore.
Wednesday, July 2, 2014
Tuesday, July 1, 2014
It doesn't always work out, just like yesterday. That was a 2.5 point loss. That is chump change for /ES standards but it kinda hurts when you had been making gains of only 6 points, and then 1.75 points. But an 11 point gain like today is what makes sense of everything. I get into trades and focus on getting out. As long as I limit the size of my losses, I can let the gains keep going and going like today.
Why did it go up? I don't know or care why, i just look at what is happening now visually.
Monday, June 30, 2014
Friday, June 27, 2014
Something is better than nothing. At least price moved in the general direction I thought it would.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
Monday, June 16, 2014
I posted examples of excellent/easy set ups to find. Basically, I want to "just get in" and then be real defensive. I would not mind making money (of course) or NOT MAKING MONEY, I just really do not want to LOSE money. I always remember, losing 5% or more of your value starts to require much more then a 5% gain to make it back...YOU HAVE TO KEEP YOUR LOSSES SMALL!
Taken from the previous 2 days of the S&P 500 futures 5-min chart. Very basic.....S/R lines formed by using at least two points. My entry these days would not come after a bar close or type of bar reversal....just any time price is at the S/R line. Initial stop would be a close past a recent peak, trade exit would be a reversing close past any trailing peak.
I want to look at more daily charts because I don't have time to watch minute charts during the day.
Saturday, July 20, 2013
Watching light sweet crude oil (texas tea?) futures. it is close to weekly resistance, I would short it on daily chart if it inches up some more and then closes down one day.
I like just focusing on where horizontal S/R lines are on my charts but sometimes there is too much of an uptrend or downtrend and I think I will start drawing channels to see if those new hi's or low's are still hitting something.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
hindsight is awesommmmmme!
My recent 8 point loss on the /ES 4 hr chart broke one of my rules. The resistance I used was not what I consider "major" on the Daily chart, instead it was only major on the 4 hr chart. I need to follow my rules...I should not have entered in the first place.
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Entered short trade for /ES on 4 hr chart at 1646, tight initial stop at 1649, still watching it right now for the drop.......its thinking about it but hasn't commited yet. news for today is a strong dollar is hurting profits. maybe that's enough....
Monday, July 8, 2013
Most people would want to see gasoline prices drop. Paying $60 a week just to drive to work is not a good thing. It would be fun to have a lot of money and become a famous trader known for shorting gasoline/oil prices. I would be a hero among men. Working class guys would buy me drinks everywhere I went. The government would like me since I would prevent the already ridiculously wealthy oil companies from sucking more wealth from average americans. That's how you spread out wealth. You spread out wealth by competition, not an unfair tax system like in socialism. Competition keeps people healthy. Huge taxes is a gorilla on your back.