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You have to survive

You have to survive
Every day is a battle, survival is rule #1

Saturday, September 5, 2015

Corp profits down

Profits of companies in the S&P 500 are expected to drop 4.3% this quarter from a year ago, according to market data company FactSet. That would be the biggest drop since the third quarter of 2009, when the economy was still clawing its way out of a recession. It would be the first time earnings have fallen more than 1% in a quarter since the end of the recession. And it would also be the first time since the end of the recession that profits dropped for two quarters in a row. Earnings are expected to have fallen 0.7% in the second quarter.

So its another 'first time since last recession...' and I think lower profit combined with no liquidity in the corp bond market means the song is ending. 'Its time...to sayyyy....goodbyeeeee' - andrea bocelli

Oil is still a good buy but market indices could be 40% below highs within 6 months. 

Friday, September 4, 2015

Around the world

Brazil has had a very sharp rally in equities.  A short sellers dream.

Sri lanka will stop trying to control their currency.  Then their rupee plunged. Does anyone care?

Us labor numbers show a small negative change and people sell because of it.  One small change doesnt say much, it changes constantly, shows how nervous people are.

An indian guy in England, I think, has been indicted for contributing to the flash crash.  He had a spoofing plan, whatever that is.  Executing Fagazi.

German DAX had a death cross.

Australian dollar is at a 6 year low.

Chinese military is laying off 300k soldiers. Damn.

Italians have acquired a high number of options to hedge against a big selloff.

Thursday, September 3, 2015

Math genius

Why you should listen
As a mathematician who cracked codes for the National Security Agency on the side, Jim Simons had already revolutionized geometry -- and incidentally laid the foundation for string theory -- when he began to get restless. Along with a few hand-picked colleagues he started the investment firm that went on to become Renaissance, a hedge fund working with hitherto untapped algorithms, and became a billionaire in the process.

Now retired as Renaissance’s CEO, Simons devotes his time to mathematics and philanthropy. The Simons Foundation has committed more than a billion dollars to math and science education and to autism research.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

I sympathize with your needs

“What we're seeing today is not a recovery. It's market volatility, it's nervousness, it's an inability to call the direction of the market," said Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Damn, didnt I just say the same thing a couple days ago?

Possible theme to this market crash

US corporate-bond issuance stagnates 
No companies have issued investment-grade bonds in the US in the past 10 days, the longest dry spell, not including Christmases, since 1995, according to Dealogic.

 

This is interesting to me because I have a little feeling corporate bonds might take the blame for this recession some how.  Its not all over the news but its basically been in its own bubble with much more than normal volatility when compared to noncorporate/government bonds.  I dunno.  If people start throwing it around on tv maybe they could make a shit storm out of it and blame greedy executive boards or whoever.  And it has two parts.  Corporate bonds are about 3.5x larger in issuance than sovereign bonds.   In 2000 corp was 5 billion, sov was 4 bilion, 2007 corp was 10 billion, sov got up to 5 billion the prior year, 2015 corp is about 35 billion, sov about 8.  So governments are going by normal growth while companies are probably way too high.  Gotta love all that debt money coming in though.  The second part is how about 85% is in foreign currencies other than USD.  the world in general is contributing and probably more vulnerable than the US.  To top it off, all the bonds could easily be peaking since its in a 10 day dry spell, which hints at an upcoming stock crash.

 

Who to blame, who to blame…

 

Amerrica

Auto sales in the US last month soared to their highest level since July 2005, fueled by consumer demand for SUVs and pickups.

 

An economy at a peak and oil in a trough creates a perfect storm.
Git r dun