back to daily chart, watching crude, channel lines

I checked out day trades for the past several days.  always cool at first until I remember how tedious it is.  Seems like I would get the same percentage of wins but the trades would be much smaller.  small trades bore me, I like the big, long trades on the daily chart better but its hard to practice on a daily chart.

Watching light sweet crude oil (texas tea?) futures.  it is close to weekly resistance, I would short it on daily chart if it inches up some more and then closes down one day. 

I like just focusing on where horizontal S/R lines are on my charts but sometimes there is too much of an uptrend or downtrend and I think I will start drawing channels to see if those new hi's or low's are still hitting something.

no entry signal for RBOB gasoline futures, it just kept pushing up so I won't be shorting that again.  I took another loss with /ES on 4 hr chart.  exited at 1654 for an 8 point loss.  that is a big loss for me.  that is my 4th consecutive loss.  whatever.  next?

hindsight is awesommmmmme!

My recent 8 point loss on the /ES 4 hr chart broke one of my rules.  The resistance I used was not what I consider "major" on the Daily chart, instead it was only major on the 4 hr chart.  I need to follow my rules...I should not have entered in the first place.

Last trade was a loss exited RBOB Gasoline futures yesterday at 2.9447.  Watching for another possible short entry now that it has moved up to an old support/new resistance.

Entered short trade for /ES on 4 hr chart at 1646, tight initial stop at 1649, still watching it right now for the drop.......its thinking about it but hasn't commited yet.  news for today is a strong dollar is hurting profits.  maybe that's enough....

I found a short entry for RBOB gasoline futures on 4hr chart, short at 2.871, initial stop loss at 2.91.

Most people would want to see gasoline prices drop.  Paying $60 a week just to drive to work is not a good thing.  It would be fun to have a lot of money and become a famous trader known for shorting gasoline/oil prices.  I would be a hero among men.  Working class guys would buy me drinks everywhere I went.  The government would like me since I would prevent the already ridiculously wealthy oil companies from sucking more wealth from average americans.  That's how you spread out wealth.  You spread out wealth by competition, not an unfair tax system like in socialism.  Competition keeps people healthy.  Huge taxes is a gorilla on your back.

Two nice short opportunities...

Gasoline futures could drop well on daily chart over the next week.
S&P500 futures could drop well on the 15 min chart  on Monday.

I like what I have been seeing

updated my May 21 post by changing the color of the font, not sure why it was invisible....i always type in black font..hmm...
anyways....

really like the trades I am finding on the hourly chart.  For the past couple of weeks I would have a couple big gainers and a few small losers, -12.5 pts for losses but +77.5 for gains. 

trade took off without me

trading on the hourly chart for S&P500 futures I would have gained 1.25 points, the trade took off pretty well without me, oh well


(not sure which day I originally posted this, will try to find out)

This made me laugh....

Between 2009 and 2012, Apple legally avoided U.S. taxes on at least $74 billion through a web of offshore subsidiaries more complex than financial experts said they have ever seen before, according to a report by congressional investigators. Some of the offshore entities had no employees and were run directly from Apple's headquarters in Cupertino, Calif. "Apple successfully sought the holy grail of tax avoidance," said Sen. Carl Levin. "It has created offshore entities holding tens of billions of dollars while claiming to be tax resident nowhere."


-from the CFA Institute

k done with research for now.  decided to watch S&P500 emini futures only and use its 4 hour chart to find s/r and trade on its hourly chart.  this way I can focus on only one instrument, which makes it much easier for me, and there should be at least a couple trades per week for me to get into, which is good for learning.  looking back over the past 20 days I would have lost on a few and gained on a few but the gains would have been huge compared to the losses, great sign to motivate me.  I wont look back for trades on the hourly chart to add to my running list of recorded trades, instead I will just start recording trades as of Monday.

current hourly resistance for me is 1558 and current hourly support for me is 1533.

NDXT happened to end in a loss for me.  I was stopped out at 1533.30, took an 11 point loss for that trade.  But with the amazing power of hindsight I see how it was a determined but messy/volatile rise up to the resistance I found.  My resistance worked and the wonderful people in this market did sell and push the price down like I expected but it was so volatile on its way down that I got stopped out before the plunge.  the nasdaq tech sector is messy, too messy for me right now.  maybe I should keep an eye on volatility prior to entry.  NDXT did have quick/ strong/upward rallies but the consolidation in between them had deep pullbacks.  about to review more charts now.

just randomly posting an entry.  I searched through many charts but I finally found a good entry for me.  There are several that I have my eye on.

**short entry at close on 3/8 for Nasdaq 100 tech sector, NDXT on TOS platform.  Initial stop is a close above my entry bar.

overall the market is sounding more exciting since new all time highs are being hit.  Japanese Yen futures was one of the only charts that I have seen sinking.

Sequestration is the latest buzzword people keep saying.  I like the picture I saw of Obama glaring to the side at Boehner in disappointment.  Which rich actor/government worker do you like?  Politics reminds me of my lovely fiancé's novellas.  Scandals, a lot of make-up, everyone is blaming someone else.  How many hundreds of years will it take for humanity to improve on democracy?

I can't find enough trades to get into by just looking at index futures so I keep skimming over the other contracts available.  Certain contracts act a little too wild for my taste but im basically willing to get into anything. 

My running total of trades that I have been keeping track of since November is at or just above 30 and my % of trades that gained is close to 40%.  Currently I am shorting Heating Oil and New Zealand Dollar for my only open trades and both look really good at the moment.  As long as there is no huge one day pullback on either I will add a couple of large gains to my record.

One of the recent losses I just had was for 5 year treasury futures.  I noticed it had a bad pullback on the weekly chart, for what I want, and now I will pay more attention to the weekly charts.  The daily chart is telling me my exact day to enter (timing) but the weekly chart, which is naturally the more important time frame is the main thing.  I used to put more emphasis on the daily chart since I entered using it, maybe that's a really good thing for me to switch it around.  sounds kinda like wisdom that I have heard before........maybe I can apply that wisdom better now. we'll see.

Have been taking old advice to heart all winter.  Or, I figured out which old advice to actually listen to.  I have heard opposite opinions.  I see how It is probably going to be foolish for me to expect over 50% of my trades to gain.  Its perfectly fine to LOSE MONEY ON MOST TRADES as long as you keep your losses small and leave the possibility for your gains to get very big.  Out of 20 trades, I am looking to  gain big on 3 or 4 of them, gain a little on 3 or 4 of them while the rest are small losses with maybe a few break even trades. 

I have been recording things at home off this blog.  I have made many trades in the past few months and my performance seems fine.  My performance is reflecting what good, realistic trading advice dictates.  I am entering at reversals on major high's and low's and exiting using trailing pivots, or a close past my entry bar as an initial stop.  I stopped trying to find the perfect set up that leads to great trades most of the time.  Now I just get in when it seems decent and I let the probability play out.  I used to worry about if each of my trades would turn into hug gainers but now I really don't care about any particular trade and I want to see how I do over certain time periods.  If I gain big on a trade now, I am not as excited as I used to be since I expect to only have a few big gainers and that is what I get.  No surprise.  I am content if the probability plays out over a certain period of time.