This blog is geared towards improving my trading knowledge and recording my trades. I am not licensed to give financial advice. Trade at your own risk. It is your fault for losing in this money game.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
/ES futures long entry
Monday, March 28, 2011
Emerging Europe, Spain, Italy, France, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Germany
GUR is an ETF that represents the emerging markets of czech republic, poland, turkey,hungary and russia. It is in a really good trend right now but is touching a rising resistance line. It might just ease through that line and continue up much higher. It is not showing any fear at all yet.
EWP is an ETF for Spain. Spain looks pretty bad. It is nowhere near being in a solid trend for me but it would be interesting to watch if it ever gets above $52. Then it could move well.
EWI is an Italian ETF. Italy looks terrible! Probably the worst chart i have seen in all the world, literally. Good luck to anyone who is long Italia.
EWQ is a French ETF that i could trade. France looks like it just needs one good pop up and then it could turn into a nice trend. Its chart looks very similar to Italy's but with a little more powerful buying.
EWL is an ETF for Switzerland. This country's stock market is already getting into its 2007 high's. Its been in a fairly strong trend but the future is iffy. It would be perfectly normal if Switzerland got real choppy this summer/fall. That is not good for trend following. EWU is an ETF for the United Kingdom. The UK is already having trouble with its current resistance level. Not too bad of a chart. Trends could open up here and there. I am using weekly charts for analyzing these countries. If price for the UK ETF gets up to $19, it could then have a month long uptrend to trade before it hits another resistance level. The uptrend would be about 4-6 bars on this weekly chart.Sunday, March 27, 2011
Netherlands, Thailand, Canada, Australia
EWN is a Netherlands ETF that i could trade. This market has some decent room to move up. It has been in a weak trend but maybe over the next couple months it will stay in a strong trend. Its price might stay above its 20 ema until it hits its next resistance level. Whenever i hear "Netherlands" , i always think of the "nether realm" in mortal kombat.
THD is the Thailand ETF that i could trade. This ETF hasnt been around for as long as i would like but i can see how its had a stronger uptrend than many countries. Thailand has moved up very, very well in the past 2 years but its been choppy lately and has a couple resistance levels to trade through if it wants to keep going up.
Canada's EWC ETF looks pretty bad if you want to ride an uptrend. Canada just has too much resistance right ahead.
New Zealand's ETF hadn't been around that long so its chart was not good to look at but EWA is an Australian ETF and its an interesting chart. Australia has been held down. It looks like price is carrying an anvil. Maybe it has to do with all the flood, fire and earthquake disasters this year. It is only one or two positive weeks away from possible taking off on decent rally to its next resistance level. Not much room to go once a breakout did happen but maybe enough.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
I checked out the RSX ETF that i could trade which represents the russian stock exchange. It is very interesting when compared to the american market. Both markets have been pushing up well for a while and have only slowed down briefly at two prior high resistance levels. Both appear to be getting past their 2nd resistance levels right now. The interesting part is how the american market will have to fight its way up through several prior highs. The russian market seems to have a pretty clear path ahead. This is a good time for the Russians to put out as much good news as possible and trigger a nice long continution of the current trend. If handled correctly, the russian market should be able to easily and steadily climb all the way back up to its 2008 highs before hitting any major resistance. The American market could keep going up as well but it would be a little harder to trade. The several resistance levels in the way will create some unnecessary volatility.
Friday, March 25, 2011
I got a 1% gain with LGND. It was kind of a wacky trade and wasn't in a typical uptrend like im used to. I think it was more vulnerable to a pullback than i thought. I will avoid stuff like this. After LGND i am holding no stocks now, for the first time in a long time.
i looked through a lot of stocks but nothing looked good yet. maybe monday or tuesday i can enter something new.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Mohamed Abdel Salam, who is the chairman of Ministry for Clearing and Settlement, will serve as chairman of the exchange for 6 months, a government statement said this week.
He said this century old building has housed the Egyptian stock market since 1903. Never in the history of Egypt or the world, however, has he seen a stock market closed for such a long period.
The markets have been closed since January 27. A political uprising that began two days earlier resulted in the eventual overthrow of then-President Hosni Mubarak.
On Saturday, Egyptian voters overwhelmingly approved proposed constitutional amendments that pave the way for parliamentary elections in June.
An estimated 45 million Egyptians were eligible to vote in what was widely viewed as the country's first free election in decades, and the poll sets the stage for parliamentary and presidential elections later this year.
The proposed amendments included limiting the president to two four-year terms, capping emergency laws to six months unless they are extended by public referendum, and placing elections under judicial oversight.
People on TV were going on about how its a teflon market, it just keeps going, its resilient, nothing is slowing it down, its been up for 5 out of the last 6 days, its the biggest move up since december!, keeps pushing up even with so much uncertainty around the globe, would you have guessed it would be this high with all thats going on in the country?, a market that just wont quit!, its the "nothing matter" rally, its the "steady as she goes" rally, the "what me worry" rally, DOW is 2% from its highs, is the rally real?
They create so much excitement over a typical bounce. This week has been a normal, decent little reversal move. Public had been selling choppily and now they are buying. The market has gone up overall after several days but with no gap ups.a couple of near flat days and one down day. Its been a very ordinary period of buying. There are the same good and bad things going on in the world as any other time, wars and disasters, same as usual. If you look into it, there will always be several explanations for any buying or selling. I only buy based on prices, not reasons, so i dont care about "why" its moving. I just think about "if" it is moving. Im glad its looking ready to start another uptrend again but its really not that exciting unless you are on the happy side of your bi-polar personality today.
I guess while most people are wondering is the rally is "real", and staying googly eyed i'll start buying since it is moving up. if price is going up then its real. price changing is all that matters.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
looks like the market is really trying to push back up into another uptrend again. the ema's are in the way like a wall though.
Friday, March 18, 2011
I read someone's else's commen on marketwatch.com and it reminded me of how ignorant people are about how currencies work. Average people ALWAYS consider a weak currency a bad thing and a strong currency a good thing. Since America CHOOSES to have a weak currency, for good reasons, average people always bash on the US dollar for being so weak. I guess average people will never learn that "strong" doesn't equate to "good" and "weak" doesnt equate to "bad". you could argue that a weak dollar forces us to pay more for imported stuff but a weak dollar also helps our businesses compete globally which is a good thing. No one ever knows what they are talking about and mentions any of that. Strong good.....weak bad.......hmm......meat good........fire hurt......
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
still not trying to enter anything new yet but i am thinking maybe i should check out anther market while the stocks are trendless.
Monday, March 14, 2011
all the trades im currently holding are longs and have been hanging in there so far. i wont jump out of them at the first sign of trouble like i did back in the end of november. i ll just hold on and wait.
Friday, March 11, 2011
i had a great time at the rodeo last night with my girlfriend. I saw the rascal flatts, took pictures with Elsie and pet a bunch of animals. after the concert the really big carnival got overwhelmingly crowded. people were literally pouring in, thousands of people. so we left and didnt even ride anything. while i was doing that, Japan had the worst earthquake in the world in 140 years.
our stock market went up well today but the TSE was obviously having problems. i dont think the earthquake will be a temporary setback at all like some people on tv. over 1000 people have died and im sure they are still counting. for a modern, developed, industrial nation to lose that many people from a natural disaster is huge. that should give you an idea of how costly all the damage will be. and this is a country who is used to earthquakes. its in their culture to worry about earthquakes. im sure it will taint most of the nation's business for the rest of the year, at the least.
oil is still trading down. i keep putting in only 1/4 tank into my car cuz i keep thinking the prices at the gas stations should drop any day. but they keep hovering around $3.35 a gallon. i guess it wont actually go down until everyone else starts nickel and diming it like me. gas stations charge you more if oil prices rise, but they only charge you less if you stop buying it. people have to fill up several times at high prices before they remember they have to live under a budget and start to conserve, and thats why gas stations lower prices slowly. even if oil prices dropped from $100+ a barrel down to $20 a barrel, if people mindlessly kept paying the $100+ barrel - gas prices at the pump, gas stations would never lower their own prices and get super rich.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
market is still wiggling sideways. one day its up much. then its down much. then a quiet day. then up much. then down much. today happens to be a "down much" day.
Qaddafi of Lybia did bomb is own oil refineries, which is funny to me. Spain had delayed bailout talks by selling a bunch of bonds earlier, but now europe is having to deal with that stuff again. Middle east country protests are still affecting oil. oil has been falling slightly so thats probably the end of the oil rally.
i was wondering if i should require TL's as support again, like i used to. that really helped me a lot before but now that im trading with strong trends it just might not happen often enough, but ill keep it in mind.
still not trying to enter anything new, just holding my trades and wanting them to hit their close targets for quicker? profits. quiet day for me. i am relaxed and i feel like im in control of my trading. just waiting.
Im going to the Rodeo with my pretty gf Gabita!
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Monday, March 7, 2011
my test trades are only beginning to have their earnings reports come out but are all over the place. focusing on my normal trades might be all i can handle right now.
apparently my WTW entry, was a bad idea. after huge gaps like that a continuation usually doesnt happen. a pullback is expected instead. ok now i know.
also my "tester" trades and any other trades i might have gotten into just recently were probably at a bad time in the market. i realized this after watching one of Mac's (chart swing trader) videos for march 7. i need to make sure i only get in when the market is in a strong trend up, not just when its going sideways but "basically still trending up". in the past week i should not have even tried to enter anything, just looking for setups. the market has been bouncing around sideways and that means its figuring out which way to go, up or down. i have thought about this before, but i need to put it in practice. I remember back when this current uptrend had started that i knew i would have to "figure out" when to stop trading. I knew sometimes im not supposed to enter anything. Well, this is one of those times. Ill just hold onto whatever trades i already have but i wont enter anything new until a new trend starts again. getting a little better at following the market might be all or most of what i need.
Friday, March 4, 2011
entered consolidation/earnings testers, AKS and /HE
A busy day for me, very productive (I found this nice she hulk art). I entered all these just to track them. im thinking about adding consolidation entries to my routine. I just want to see how these trade compare with each other. Some should do bad, others good.
went crazy with pics today. i also entered /HE and AKS as pullback entries. had trouble saving a pic for /HE and AKS. i need to print out another checklist to use for my pullback entry and i can revise my breakout entry checklist also.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
all my other trades are close to exiting for small profits also. the market created new resistance for my stocks since entry so i will use that as an exit, then go on to find new trades with better rewards.
i want to try entering stocks before they make a large bar. the rest of my setup would be the same, but i would enter during the consolidation and wait for the catalyst, such as earnings. the way i have been trading can work well, but as i fine tune it and figure out what to watch out for, it might become harder to find entries. another method would be good to know. really good traders tend to use several.
new setup= consolidation sitting on 20 or 50 ema, flat, long, short. more volume the better. oversold stochastics. enter right before earnings report. exit at next resistance level. this sounds like im "betting on earnings", but if the market and the stock are already in a strong trend, the jokers at the company will probably produce an earnings report that is good.if business has been good, creating a rising trend, chances are the very next earnings report will be good, or not a bad surprise. i want to try this. along with my breakout entries. i put in a bunch of market orders so i can track different stocks and see how they do.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Market turned down today so i couldnt get out with my limit orders but i did get out for a .006% loss in TER with a market order. I should never have entered that stock. Market goes down whenever oil goes up right now.
i think i will also start requiring the 4hr chart to be in a strong trend, according to the ema's, price being above and only dipping down to 20 ema.