Class of 2016-18 - Earning an MBA is never a bad idea :)

Great Advice

Most investing advice that is available is either too elementary or pointless/random.  The Motley Fool has some people who really know how to trade.  They tend to profess what i already do:

It's common knowledge that the point of investing is to buy low and sell high, but selling because your stocks went down is the exact opposite of that. Of course, if your stocks go down because of any of the reasons listed here, such as a fundamental change in the business, by all means go ahead and sell. However, if the price drop has little to do with the company itself, a price drop should be looked at as a buying opportunity, not a reason to panic.

Nintendo

So a bunch of people bought Nintendo stock since they heard that Pokemon Go had become very popular around the world.  Now those same people are learning that Nintendo does not even own the game.  People thought Pokemon Go would make Nintendo suddenly take over the gaming world or something along those lines.  Somehow they thought this would happen just from one popular game people play on their phones.  Nintendo only receives a sliver of the profit due to licensing fees.  The stock price exploded, then crashed.  The thing is, it crashed due to people being so excited they didn't realize who owned the game.  Normally a crash would be because popularity ended.  Interesting.
The stock price was around 18, then it shot up to around 38, then it crashed and is currently around 27.  It is still popular and may get even more popular.  If people weren't so ignorant and impulsive, the stock price would have quickly bumped up to the 20-22 range.

This is kind of funny.  People look stupid when they are wandering around together looking for pokemon with their phones.  It makes sense for people to look stupid for attempting to 'invest' in Pokémon.  From what I see, people are having fun looking for the pokemon but no one is actually playing the game where you make your pocket monsters fight each other.  That will probably describe the wane of popularity overall when it happens.

What now?

The sp500 is floating around 2162.  It is just sitting there.  There wont be a selloff until there is fear of losing money.  There is nothing to talk about in the news other than terrorism and shootings.   People are not worried about their money.  The wealthy are sitting tight for now.  The middle class is riding high with few worries.  What happens next?

Sp500 new high

And just like that, the market gaps up to new highs.  Trading is fairly quiet during the day. Price is giving soft love taps to 2155.  Lately its calm all day but then price gaps up in the morning.  The stair stepping thing. 

If all the action is in the open, then there might be people making longer term trades.  Who knows.  My 401k is at a new high total, thats cool.  Is the market pushing up before dropping down like in the brexit vote?  All i know is people are buying at all time highs.  How dumb is that?  That is like buying clothes after they raise the price instead of having a sale.  As King Louie said in Jungle Book... "cur-aaaz-eh"

History in the making

The sp 500 is making all time highs as we speak.  That should create excitement and coerce people to make trades. 

It was pushing up very slowly after the opening.  It would probably keep rising for a while.

As i type this it is hitting 2138.  It is an interesting time because i know there could be a record high breakout to the upside or there could be a major selloff falling down to 1300.

What i do like is how my oil stock is not correlated with the market day.  For a little while they were moving together. 

S & P 500

So, im seeing this index sitting right at all time highs.  It is at 2120 this very moment.  Brexit was a major event in the news but very minor to the US in reality.  It still cared a lot of people into making trades.  Now we know people are listening to economic news.  Maybe that was the wake up call.  Maybe the big fall is being set up.  You cant have a market decline if the market participants arent reading economic news.  If bad economic news will now catch the eye of many people, then a major event that is actually major to the US in reality can cause a market selloff.  It is interesting trying to figure out what would cause a decline but in the end, predicting is impossible unless u actually have super powers.  What i do know is that we are vulnerable to a selloff.  I have no clue what will or could cause it.  When a selloff happens, it is because enough people decided to sell at the same time and more join in as it gets worse. Then vultures like me start circling.

British Sterling

After looking at an etf named FXB, I wish I could buy GBP currency too.  Regardless of how you could execute the trade, buying GBP sounds like what I love the most.  It is basically going into its own little recession, possibly depression and now its on clearance.  I wish I could buy that in my 401k.  Excluding short sellers, to be selling GBP now would be proof that you are a horrible investor.  Selling low is horrible and the opposite of what you are supposed to do.  Now is the time to buy, not sell.  It is the time to buy because so many others have sold.  Most of them do not know what they are doing.  I'm sure a few would rather stay in but have to get out for whatever reason or maybe they really do have a quicker/better opportunity to put their money in.  But in the end, chances are most of the people responsible for pushing prices down really are wrong/clueless whether they admit it or not.  But I am glad they are like that because I can take advantage of it.  Or, I would take advantage of it if I could.

Ahhh, so many opportunities.  So many depressed assets to buy.  Life is too short.  I know, I will live to be 100 so i can die with a huge trading account :) 

Greece

I was checking out GREK which is a solid representation of the Greek stock market.  I would buy it.  It peaked at 25 back in 2014 and has been bouncing around between 10 and 5 lately.    Within a few years i can see it back up to 15.  It would be a pretty solid trade in my opinion.  The EU is being forced to move toward stricter economic rules for member countries.  Once they get over the accountability hurdle, things will look good again.  The EU economy may never catch up to the US economy but thats another story.  GREECE looks like a good buy to me.

My book

Im wanting to finish my book soon.  I would rather publish something this year than work on it forever until it is a masterpiece.  The problem is i am not sure of what the point of the book should be. I wanted it to be focused on me learning how to trade and easing into it.  Economic events would be mentioned as they happened.  I would include my own observations.  I feel like just talking about myself could be boring.  Maybe what i have is good and i can just add more about world events.  Then the book could be about someone learning how to trade and the economy during that time.  I would rather be a reporter of events than an egotistical hopefully-a-future-success type of author.  My own trading could be in the background with events in the foreground. It would be the opposite of what i first intended. Yeah, that sounds good.  I like it.