sfsamperi.blogspot.com

You have to survive

You have to survive
Every day is a battle, survival is rule #1

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

/LE got stopped out again. it did not have good volume with my bar signals. im waiting for some perfect-ish moves to get into with probability on my side. several new trends have started and several more are about to be started among the commodity, index and currency futures. the next couple months should create several good trading opportunities. i have to wait for the trades that look perfect. im spending a lot of time thinking of what would increase my odds.

Monday, December 28, 2009

i have decided to add Volume as an indicator to my trading. since i started learning how to trade i could never understand how to use volume. i could never "see it" work for me. and thats a little frustrating since almost everyone uses volume and its a default indicator on most chart services. but now i think i know how to work it into my trades. reminds me of how most of my life i didnt understand how to play poker, then one day i got it, and then i played it a lot and got pretty good. maybe that will happen again? what got me looking at volume again was me figuring out a couple new ways i can use my trendlines.

i want my middle time frame's bar signals to have above-average volume. its easy to argue how it makes sense to use but i like it cuz i see how it works for me. where my bar signals are, good volume seems to have 90%+ reliability for a good trade to follow. in the same places bad volume seems exactly 50%....that sounds like gambling.

my recent /LE short trade happens to violate my new volume requirement so im assuming it wont work but ill let it finish since it still looked so good. if it stops me out today or tomorrow it will help prove my new volume requirement even more.

Friday, December 25, 2009

/LE Entry...Short

i was gonna wait till sunday night but friday night it let my order go through, so now im holding /LE again for the same short move. it looks like the trendline has held up well for several days with nice signals...engulfing signal, overbought daily stochastics, room to drop within the pattern.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

gaby is the best gf ever!......
ok im happy with the current breakouts that have happened or will happen. everyone must have planned on starting new rallies for the holidays....??

/ZT, /ZB, /E7, /M6E have all just broken down and should start new trends for me.
/DX has broken up and should start a new trend.

/J7 and /6M might break down soon from their rising wedges.
/6C is in a very tight triangle, could go either way.
got stopped out of 6A and 6M at the same time almost. i saw it coming....6A was breaking down from a big pattern so i was "trading against the trend" and 6M was still inside a big pattern so i was basically trading when "there is no trend". im glad i made these mistakes so from now on i will avoid making trades against new trends from breakouts or when a pattern is squeezing price together right before a breakout.