/ES 1.5 point gain

Nice pullback to my falling resistance line.  I was correct on direction and getting a good price but it just did not have a strong push down but I will take a small gain any day. 

/ES 1.25 point gain

With the rules I am following now, I can see how there was a breakdown from a rising triangle, then a change of polarity for the bottom S/R line of that triangle.  

/ES .75 point gain

Everything looked good but there was not that much volatility and I was pushed out a little early.

No trade

No hourly S/R line was hit.

/ES 1.25 point gain

Price basically went sideways for the day but by chance I was able to take a small gain.

Missed a small gain in /ES

I do not see a reasonable way for me to have gotten into the small move Thursday morning.  I am comfortable just assuming i would have missed it.  Price basically flatlined after moving up a little in the morning, so overall the day was boring and maybe that is why I missed it.  I would have required a little more of a pullback to support but that means it would have to have been a more volatile day.

/ES 7 point gain missed under current method

I would have missed a nice 7 point gain today if I forced myself to wait until 8:30am to enter.  I have realized that was a pointless restriction.  I enter based the hourly chart so that is why 8am is important to me.

Ok, now i really feel like it has come together, not only to keep losses small when I lose, but also to increase the odds of having the correct direction, plus I should still get a good price for my entries.

Hourly S/R lines, usually a channel or triangle.
Use first S/R line that is tested after 8am.
Enter after 8 am on 5 min chart, exit using trailing pivots.

/ES .75 point loss

Trying to short using a channel as S/R from the 1 hour chart.  There was no decent push down and I was stopped out with a slight close past my first trailing stop. -.75 points.

Examples of entering using 1 hour S/R lines

Enter at 8:30 or later, quit trying to trade after 10:30 if nothing happens.

Trade assuming a reversal at S/R lines, enter at S/R lines.  

Use the first  S/R that gets tested after 8:00.

I really want to test this out in real time tomorrow morning, well in 5 hours since I can't sleep.

/ES 5 point gain / Method Update

Use 1 hr S/R lines, the most recent
Enter assuming reversal on 5 min chart
Exit with 2 point initial stop loss and trailing stop using most recent pivot highs/lows.


This is essentially the same thing i have been doing but i am increasing odds of have an actual trade because of the 1 hour major S/R lines instead of minor 5 minute S/R lines.  Bigger time frames are more important.


5 point gain for Monday 8-18-14

/ES 9 point gain

Using 30 min S/R as entry.  If i enter, assuming a reversal, at the first 30 min S/R line that should increase all my statistics.  Today I would have made about 9 points.

Researching

I know I get distracted easily and my imagination is rediculous but i have been thinking.
What I like about the way I have been trading is that it really tests and shows off my exit strategy.  The comparison between various sized gains and smallish losses means gains overall.  But i think it is time for me to increase my odds.  So i will add one more basic concept.  Reversals at major S/R lines.  Instead of just using minor S/R for my entry and letting whatever random trend tell me what direction to go in,  I will base my direction on reversing from the first major S/R that price hits after the open.

Major S/R lines drawn using recent peaks and troughs on 30 min chart.  Various lines can be drawn.  I will enter on 5 min chart, assuming a reversal at whichever line price hits first after the market opens.

It makes sense to me that It should increase the odds of me getting a gain and the overall size of my gains.  Looking back at previous days this works very well but now I will test it in real time for the next few weeks or so.

/ES 2 point loss Wednesday, no trade Thursday

I made a mistake on Tuesday, I should not have traded at all since I was unsure about what I should do.

I lost 2 points on Wednesday, a legitimate loss.  I dont mind the legitimate losses that "just go the wrong way" and i take 1 or 2 points for the loss.  But i really don't like the losses I have sometimes which are based on some mistake.

Today, i would not have traded since I was unsure about what I should do.  it was not the set up that I like and base all my odds on so I skipped today.

/ES 2.5 point loss

I did not have a small channel to base my buy/sell decision on at the open this time.  I made a mistake and tried to find some new reason to base my decision on at the last minute.  Maybe it is fine to look back at the trend but Im sure I made a mistake at that.  In the end, I should not do anything different from what I am sure about while trading.  I know better and I feel bad about it.

2.5 point loss.  after entering I was stopped out very soon.

/ES 2 point loss $$

Price was moving slow, i sold short at resistance on what looked like a small falling channel going into the open, I was stopped out after a close past a trailing stop but with the market order to cover I ended up exiting right at my initial stop of 2 points.

Sticking to my plan using real money

I must follow what I have been doing because overall it works very well for me.  Over the summer i found several mistakes that I had made but almost every mistake would have been avoided if i had just followed my plan.  I get distracted easily and I have a vivid imagination.  Even if something has been wonderful lately I can easily consider changing almost everything because I am very interested in anything related to trading.

I must follow my plan every morning and change nothing.

small uptrend going into open = buy at support
small downtrend....................= sell at resistance

trend = squiggly movement, usually a near perfect channel shape, has peaks and troughs

enter at or near market open 8:30 am central time.

exit after a close past 2 point stop loss or trailing stop
trailing stop = new recent trough (when buying) or new recent peak (when selling)

Because of my exit strategy where I want to keep losses small but let my gains get big, if I only had a 50% chance of being correct on market direction that would be fine.  By choosing my direction based on a small trend leading into the open i believe that I can get a little better than 50% on direction, maybe more like 65% ....hard to tell so far.  I just know that all summer after trading in real time on most days or looking back to see what I would have done and the result, there would be a mixture of losses, gains, a break-even trade and a couple of missed gains.  My gains were at least 50% of my trades and there is a significant profit, all based on trading 1 S&P 500 emini contract, 1 trade per day.  I would have had a net gain of about $1400 for the month of July alone.

I will probably trade with real money soon but nothing will change.  I am just hoping that my first few trades are good so I do not need to worry about adding more to cover the margin requirement.

/ES 1.5 point loss

Price became choppy and quiet after I entered.  Barely hanging in there half the time but eventually I took a $75 loss.

/ES 1.25 point loss

It barely hung in there for a little while, then it looked decent, then it sold down hard and I was stopped out for 1.25 points.

Missed an entry for a great trade

It would have been a nice, big trade which I feel like I am due for, a 12 point gain if I had gotten in at the open but I was waiting for a small pullback and it never came.  I had a limit order to buy and price just shot up and didnt even hesitate until noon.

I missed another good trade a few weeks ago, pretty much the same scenario.  I guess It will have to happen sometimes if I strictly follow my technical trading system.

/ES 3.25 point loss

My losses are averaging double what they were during the early summer.  But i dont mind as long as my rewards double too.  I haven't had a big gain lately but I think I am due for one this week.  My trade today looked good at first but then I was stopped out as the day became sideways.  I took a 3.25 point loss.

/ES 3 point gain selling short

Price literally froze a few different times but overall the volatility was high.  I sold short and after 45 minutes of me thinking the bottom should be ready to give out, it started dropped and I exited for a 3 point gain after price dropped well, then pulled back a lot to close past a trailing stop.

Iceland

I briefly watched a documentary about how some greedy guys in Iceland, calling themselves the New Vikings, had a fairly significant influence over the entire world during the 2008 financial crisis.  An Icelandic bank became worthless and that triggered the rest of the poorly run banks in the world to crash in 2008.  I like how the building that was used for a meeting which ended communism in Russia was down the street from a beautiful, but vacant building which was built on lies during the 2008 financial crisis and when Iceland's finances exploded.

/ES 4 point loss

Another big day.  Unfortunately price went the wrong way at first to stop me out before dropping really well like I wanted.  From peak to trough it dropped over 22 points after I was stopped out.  As I would expect, losses are bigger when rewards are bigger.  4 point loss, possibly a little less.