sfsamperi.blogspot.com

You have to survive

You have to survive
Every day is a battle, survival is rule #1

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

A different kind of bubble

Amazon is up about 135% since a year ago.
Google is up about 60% since a year ago.
But most of the tech sector is about the same as a year ago.

I think specific "giants" could start the broad market crash when they fall independently. They could be the catalyst, not any sector in general.

Monday, December 28, 2015

DisStressed out

The bond markets are starting to factor in the dangerous combination of rising interest rates as well as profit weakness in several sectors. The U.S. distress ratio - a measure of the amount of risk the market has priced into bonds - hit 20.1% in November, which is the highest level since hitting 23.5% in September 2009, says S&P. That's an onerous indicator since September 2009 takes investors back to the last recession.

Another highest-since-2009... i am at least 6 months from moving my money from oil to equities and thats only if stocks start crashing now.  I will probably want to buy stocks within a year.  Im already up about 25% with my oil trade so maybe it will be closer to a 50% gain by the time i transfer it over to equities.  It will be fun to swoop in and grab a bunch of cheap, post crash equities.  I guess im kinda boring if that is fun to me. 

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Robo-advisors

So Lu coded his own solution. In 2010 he co-founded FutureAdvisor, an online investment platform that uses algorithms to direct users’ savings to diversified exchange-traded funds. Depending on your risk appetite, the software automatically rebalances your account, navigating you through the world of equities. “This company was partially created to help people like my group of friends,” Lu says.

But industry leaders know that they can’t afford to shut doors on millennials. They’re already the most populous generation in the U.S., and their potential for wealth creation is huge as they approach their peak earning years; by 2020 millennials could have $7 trillion in liquid assets. “You’ve got this extra-ordinary demographic shift [away] from baby boomers,” says Fairbairn. “That’s going to lead to an aggressive market-share game.”

What im hearing is my generation is getting more involved in throwing their money at advisors with computer programs making decisions.  Bad idea, it has never worked to use algorithms to make every decision.  Usually they work well at the beginning but become random soon after.  It could work as an extra tool if constantly tweaked by a trader who makes good decisions but that wont happen.  This is new, exciting and will be streamlined with little management.  It will create more opportunity for me.  It is a new idea but the same concept used since computers got popular in the 90's....algorithms.  the fallacy is simple.  Computers are not smart, just fast at being stupid.  I learned that about calculators when i was a kid. 
I am not complaining, im just confirming the ignorance of average people for the upteenth time.

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Investing green

But as the U.S. government fiddles while the earth heats up, an unlikely hero is emerging from the shadows that may end up saving the day—Wall Street. From green investment portfolios to ecofriendly shareholders, Wall Street is helping to divert capital away from the polluters of the world to cleaner—and, in many cases, more lucrative—alternatives.

I have heard a lot about divesting from fossil fuels lately.  I think its mostly about chasing potential gains.  If people were serious about the environment they would be doing this every year instead of exactly while oil shows big losses.  Some green investors will switch back later and use whatever excuse they can.   Making good trades is about making good bets with available opportunities, not changing the world.  That is a beginners mistake.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

EPS= not very helpful

America's biggest companies are still spending hundreds of billions of dollars devouring themselves. 

Share buybacks executed by members of the S&P 500 rose 16% in the third quarter, according to data from FactSet out on Tuesday.

Information technology (specifically Apple, Microsoft, and Qualcomm), financial, and industrial firms leading the way. The number of companies buying back stock during the quarter totaled 383, up from 380 in the prior quarter. 

Buying back shares raises the earnings per share.  So simultaneously price goes up more and EPS looks better.  Another reason to not base trades on a number unless your research is extensive and takes into account exceptions.  Ignore accountants, dont trust lawyers and run when both departments work together.

Monday, December 14, 2015

End of the year 2015

Moszkowski said that the late-year sell-off is a regular occurrence:

After mid-November, the markets tend to get less liquid, and every year people think it is for a different reason. This year, it is clear something is going on in energy markets, which colors high yield, and a lot of the hedge funds become much less active, and so do the traders on the Wall Street desks.

Everybody is backing off on risk for the last six weeks of the year. It happens every year. Every year we point to something different. This time it is energy, and high yield. It is always something.

What gets blamed is what people should buy.  If someone had a bad year and were pushed to sell their oil assets for a loss, they should have admitted making an error by holding into all time/expansion highs and start buying more as price drifted lower.

Its true, volume dies during the holidays but sometimes things move on low volume.  I still think when the market crashes it will blame the oil glut.  It is slowly tainting everything.