sfsamperi.blogspot.com

You have to survive

You have to survive
Every day is a battle, survival is rule #1

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Flat month

Flat month for the world.

Jobless claims are low, at a level not seen since right before the dot com bubble.

Baidu growth rate is where it was right before the financial crisis.

Many numbers match up with pre-crash levels.

Im still buying Cameron stock as it tries to push above $55

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

China halting

The trade performance left China with a trade surplus of $3.1 billion last month, much smaller than forecasts for a $45.4 billion trade gap.

I guess they thought trends last forever.  Thats like saying you were going to make$100 but instead made $7. 

Monday, April 27, 2015

Maple

Canada’s housing bubble has been a sight to behold. Home prices only dipped 8% when the US housing market crashed. Then it re-soared. Now, across the country, home prices are 26% higher than they were at the already crazy peak in 2008. In Toronto, they’re 42% higher!

I wish I could build a huge apartment complex to get ready for a big shift away from homeownership up there.

Sunday, April 26, 2015

Standard business cycle diagram

https://www.google.com/search?q=sector+rotation&biw=320&bih=460&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=e2s9VemeJNGzoQSg4YEg&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAg&dpr=1.5#imgrc=_cbj7bu8ATilrM%253A%3B8eIhu46d9O-rKM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.marketoracle.co.uk%252Fimages%252F2010%252FApr%252Fstocks-sectors-14-3.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.marketoracle.co.uk%252FArticle18628.html%3B624%3B326

Thursday, April 23, 2015

History lesson

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

Flash crash of 2010

The flash crash was essentially over in five minutes. But it took regulators nearly five months to come up with a theory about what happened. And in late September 2010, when the SEC and the CFTC—the same agency now charging Sarao with causing the crash—released a joint report on what happened, they didn't mention spoofing, let alone Sarao. Instead, they blamed a large trade by a firm out of Kansas City.

It's not even clear that the feds' new explanation is correct. As Matt Levine notes over at Bloomberg View, regulators believe that Sarao continued to place massive fake sell orders in the years after the flash crash, but somehow that activity never triggered another crisis:

If regulators think that Sarao's behavior on May 6, 2010, caused the flash crash, and if they think he continued that behavior for much of the subsequent five years, and if that behavior was screamingly obvious, maybe they should have stopped him a little earlier?

Also, I mean, if his behavior on May 6, 2010, caused the flash crash, and if he continued it for much of the subsequent five years, why didn't he cause, you know, a dozen flash crashes? 

So I mean…maybe he didn't cause the flash crash?

I thought it was computer programs having a skynet-ish meltdown.....gotta blame someone I guess.