Icahn and Latin America

Is Icahn an icon?

He is beating the sell off drum.  There will probably be a sell off.  Equities have been sitting just below all time highs for a while now.  Pretty boring.  If there is a drop, my dfemx should move lower so i can buy at better prices. 

Puerto Rico is about to default on bond payments.  Cuba is slowly opening up to American tourists.  Venezuela is in a energy crisis/monetary crisis/ depression.  Another routine deadly explosion at a Pemex location in Mexico killed over 30 people.  More shootouts in the street in Guerrero, Mexico.  Several hundred people died from an earthquake in Ecuador a couple weeks ago.  I will be relaxing in Quintana Roo, Mexico soon.  Hispanic cultures are bad at economics but they happen to live near some wonderful environments.

Funny

UC Berkeley Touts $15 Minimum Wage Law, Then Fires Hundreds Of Workers After It Passes
UC Berkeley announced that it was laying off 500 employees just a week after California Gov. Jerry Brown approved a $15 minimum wage.

And

By Serajul Quadir

DHAKA (Reuters) - Bangladesh's central bank was vulnerable to hackers because it did not have a firewall and used second-hand, $10 switches to network computers connected to the SWIFT global payment network, an investigator into one of the world's biggest cyber heists said.

The shortcomings made it easier for hackers to break into the Bangladesh Bank system earlier this year and attempt to siphon off nearly $1 billion using the bank's SWIFT credentials

People never change

By
Megan McArdle

Why can so few people seem to save any money? The number of people scraping along from paycheck to paycheck is astonishing; surveys routinely find that somewhere between a third and half of all Americans don’t have the savings to fund ordinary emergencies -- a moderately large repair, a month with no income. These are not the kind of astonishing runs of bad luck that no one could realistically expect to cover, like a $100,000 medical bill, or a multi-year illness that makes it impossible to work. They’re just the normal vicissitudes of regular life, and somehow, Americans are unprepared.

So, if i bet on people being immature, foolish and bad with their money, i will win.  Its not everyone, but more than enough.  It also dedcribes human beings, not just americans.  Who knows what kind of market crash is coming but we sure are ripe for one.  Before the last crash Hummers were popular, now its Jeep.

Brexit

The EU started out as not even a half-hearted attempt to make the continent one big, efficient nation.

If Britain leaves it wont impact the world that much.  Their economy would shrink a little immediately, followed by expansion. The question is whether all that would be better than the so-so expansion they can expect with the EU.

In the long run, i dont think it matters if brexit happens or not.  The real problem is how pathetic the EU plan has been executed.  Its almost as bad as Russia's transition to capitalism.  Eventually, maybe when im old, the continent will be one big nation.  The fact that countries occasionally consider leaving means there is little patriotism towards being in the EU.  It doesnt feel natural to the people.  A state in the US has not considered leaving our union in about 150 years and that was mainly due to british instigation. The us has every state represented in the government and federal laws are pretty uniform.  Europeans dont want to be one big country yet.  They just want a better deal.  They do not understand how truly joining together is better.  It will take a couple generations before random europeans grow up considering themselves European first, and german or italian second.  There is no real pride yet, just a deal that kinda sounds better, hopefully, maybe.

Eventually random Scandinavians and poles will tell people they live in the EU and the state they grew up in was norway, poland or Romania.  That is when there economy will be doing well.  It will be awhile.  For now, Britain should do whatever helps them sleep at night. 

Villifying Wall Street again

Wall Street Pay Has More Than Doubled in the Past 25 Years but No One Else Can Say the Same

That pay gap has helped fueled the “angry votes” in support of the more extreme presidential candidates on either side of the aisle during this election cycle: Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.

Lucinda Shen

Lets hate on fat cat bankers again.  The more ignorant, short term voters Lucinda is referring to hate anyone with success.  We arent communists, so how can anyone argue over pay gaps between different industries and functions?  Money should only be taken away if crime is involved.  But if someone wants someone elses wealth because they feel entitled to it, then they should be ignored.  They are immature, ignorant and materialistic.  And if they are against the finance industry in general, then they should move to Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea or some other extreme left wing nation with pathetic quality of life.

Another reason for US being propped up

Direct investment by China in the U.S. is on track to hit a record $30 billion in 2016, according to research firm Rhodium Group and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, which works to promote closer ties between the countries.

That's double last year's record $15 billion investment.

There are few signs that investment will slow as China works to increase its exposure to higher-income countries and counteract an economic slowdown at home.

All that money coming in is great but it cant last.  Our stock market is going sideways.  Something is still preventing a selloff.  Its becoming a boring market top.

Earth's Economy is bigger than you think

One day our global economy will get a boost when underground economies convert to above ground where its less profitable but legal.  I don't think people realize how there are criminal organizations pretty much everywhere.  We like to talk about the economy and GDP and how everything is growing.  But all that we cover on CNBC is only hitting on maybe 90-92% of economic activity.  All the illegal gains in the world might equal the GDP of country such as the United Kingdom or India.  If someone decided to study organized crime as a hobby, they would see it everywhere.  I read an article about La Ndrangheta and La Cosa Nostra.  Two rival organizations from Calabria and Sicilia.  There is an internal war/power grab within La Ndrangheta in Canada.  Most will never hear about it since there is no bloodbath in the street.  Mexican cartels and terrorist armies in 3rd world countries get that kind of attention.  While people talk about mutilated bodies being found in resort towns, Yakuza, Triads, Mafia, Ukrainians and many others are very busy. 

Depending on what they do exactly, criminal organizations can range from being fleas who just skim a little off the top from many to rabid wolves running around forcing their will on whoever is in the way.  Some are violent and some are not.  The older more mature organizations have little violence.  One day things will change.  It won't be worth it to be underground.  Some type of amnesty could occur.  I think im looking way too far ahead in the future though. Several thousand years maybe? Maybe.  But small steps in that direction could occur which would lead to a bump in tax revenue/employment/GDP.  There are individuals all over the world making hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars per year.  If their income became transparent and legal or if all that money flowed into legal businesses instead, there would be a significant change.

Legalization of recreational use of Marijuana in 4 or more states in the US already has shown that.  Smuggling weed across the border and the violence associated with it is down dramatically.  Now there are businesses selling reefer products and the IRS is getting more income.  Its a start.

Just a thought.

Peter Schiff is funny

He said 2008 would be a major crash, but he says 2016 will be even worse.  He said wal-mart will be the new Saks Fifth Ave.  Pretty much a doomsday scenario. 

He is just following the basic business cycle.  Recession about every 8 years.  He just keeps saying the next one will be bigger, and it will go on, and on.  He makes money on this type of thing.  He is an economic fire and brimstone apacalyptic preacher.

No more CAM

The SLB/CAM  merger is official.  My CAM shares should convert to SLB shares.  Im still not sure if i will be able to buy SLB shares in the future for my 401k.  It sounds like i will not which is odd.  I now have shares in DFEMX.  It seems like a mostly east-asian emerging market fund.  DFEMX is not really far below its highs but its decent.  Hopefully it continues to drop which would mean its companies are more tied to economies other than China.  If it moves up from here then it might be a short trade.  Its about $22 now but $18 would be nice.  Overall, emerging markets a a great buy right now, almost or close to half off their highs.  DFEMX is more like 20% off but i will work with what i have.