Good chance that oil will only go up from $28 brl. It went over 34 today. People are hinting that opec will slow production. High volatility in oil/oil stocks.
Maybe in a couple months i will stop buying CAM/SLB and just hold it for a while. Then i would have to buy something else. There are a few things that im watching.
Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has produced average total returns of about 9% per year. This not only includes the current correction, but the financial crisis, dot-com bubble, and 1987 crash, which all occurred during this time period. The point is, it's safe to say no matter what's happening now, stocks still perform well over the long run.
However, the average investor has produced an average annual total return of less than 2% during the same time period. How can this be?
The problem is that investors are people, and people are emotional. When stocks fall sharply like they've done recently, many people panic and sell in fear of their stocks going down even more. And, when the market is going up and up, that's when investors are most willing to throw their money in. In other words, we all know that the point of investing is to buy low and sell high, but emotion causes investors to do the exact opposite.
......same thing w buffet and i would say. Im like w buffet but with 99.9% less money and i look at charts, he researches companies in person/corporate raider sometimes.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) (NYSE: BRK-A) has produced average returns of 21.6% per year over the past 50 years, while the average investor garnered about 2% over the past 30. What's the difference? Easy -- the average investor gets nervous when prices fall and sells at a loss. And, when they see everyone else making money on "it" stocks like Tesla and Amazon.com, they buy when prices are already high. In other words, common sense tells us that the goal of investing is to buy low and sell high, but many investors do the exact opposite.
He is politely saying some people trade on emotions and are completely wrong. Some people create bubbles and burst together.
All i have been buying for the past 13 months was CAM stock. My broker sends me emails occasionally saying all my money is in stock and thats risky. They want me to diversify. Most of what i can purchase was at or near their highs and are down only 5-25%. My avg share price in CAM is well below 25%. Im happy with what i have done. If i was diversified i would have had worse performance.
By Shawn Langlois, MarketWatch
Hey, don’t let a few market hiccups to start the year bum you out too much. Strategists predict gains by the end of the year! Just like they did last year. And the year before that. And the year before that, all the way back to 1998, according to one Georgetown professor who crunched the numbers during that time frame to come to this conclusion: The Wall Street pros are “full of bull.”
Salil Mehta, in a deep dive for the Statistical Ideas blog, examined 186 public forecasts, which he culled from 19 years of media coverage. For starters, the strategists have called for a positive year more than 95% of the time, while the market has only been up 73% of the time.
So...analysts pretty much say the same thing no matter what. They are usually not traders themselves, so they dont have real experience. They prefer to predict gains so they can be positive petes, since noone likes a negative nancy. they simply extrapolate good trends or consider downturns to be temporary, to hold onto an extrapolated trend they are married to.
The best advise i can give is to either save your money in gauranteed, low return assets or follow the advice of a consistently profitable trader. Listening to advisors, analysts and random other people will keep your gains random, messy, volatile, unpredictable and emotionally driven. Do you ask random people to perform surgery on u? No, u get a surgeon. Dont ask random people to tell u where to put ur money. Get a trader. So much logic is lost when people handle wealth.
There are four psychological stages that people go through during a bear market. Right now, investors know the market is struggling but most believe it will come back. In fact, many see this as a buying opportunity. Here are the four stages:
Stage 1: Denial
Right now, we’re in the denial stage. Anyone who is bullish is too stubborn to change his or her view. Many people have their head in the sand, and some may not even look at their January statements. Many believe the market will come back. Right now, many are still buying the dips, which does not work in a bear market. This is similar to what has happened to oil.
Stage 2: High Anxiety
In this stage, many investors are like a deer in the headlights. They are frozen and nervous but don’t do anything. They are told by brokers and financial experts to stay calm and don’t panic. We haven’t reached this stage yet.
Stage 3: Fear
In this stage, the rampant bulls finally realize they are in trouble. If they have bought stocks on margin, they might be getting calls from their broker to add money to losing positions. In this stage, they are watching in fear as their portfolio burns. They reluctantly start to take action as fear increases. Often they say to themselves, “When my stock gets back to even, I will sell.”
Stage 4: Panic
This is what I call the “uncle” stage. This is when panicked investors throw in the towel and take action. They want to get out of the market while they still have something left. At this stage, there is huge downside volume and double-digit declines on the indexes. At the end of Stage 4, many people vow to never buy stocks again. We are not even close to this stage yet. Typically, we hit bottom when investors capitulate after losses of 20% to 50% in their stock portfolios.
I like this. The 4 step plan to be a horrible tader. Its what i had to grow out of. Most of us start out this way when we marry a stock for the first time. I never really got to step 4. Gabita es bonita.
Sp500 already dipped past the battle of the alamo. There was a gap down, followed by steady selling.
Soon, the war of 1812, louisiana purchase, revolutionary war and onward to the founding of new orleans in 1718.
India, which is expected to grow faster than many Asian countries, has also been caught up in the recent global stock market rout. The country’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex had lost 6.3% of its value this year through Friday. On Monday, the Sensex was trading slightly lower.
The stabilization seen in Chinese markets on Monday may be short lived. Investors expect China to report on Tuesday that the economy grew at around 7% last year — the slowest pace in a quarter-century.
Meanwhile, some analysts say that a fall in the Shanghai benchmark to 2,500 from the current 2,913.84 level could trigger widespread margin calls. Margins loans — money borrowed by investors to fund share purchases — fueled a rally in Shanghai early last year. But when the market began to crumble, brokerages began calling investors to pay back loans, making losses snowball.
I think its a good time to start buying the shanghai index, and probably to keep buying it for a little while. Its around 2900 or half off from its last major peak. Buy below 3000, sell above 5000. Pretty obvious trade to me. Indian stocks will crash after the us crashes. The us is propped up by cheap gas, maybe india is propped up by cheap commodities.
This morning the sp500 was at ww2, 1940's, but has dipped down to antebellum, 1880's. We are at the support level for the 10% correction from august 2015.
If we head down to the civil war, this crash is probable. If we hit the battle of the Alamo, i would assume the magna carta is next, 1215.
But we will see. I dont trade on predictions. I make decisions after an event takes place. If the market never crashes, ill never buy. Im in no rush. The oil crash is giving me plenty of chances to buy low, and it is dragging out.
People are using the word 'rout' way too much lately. China's market rout, commodity rout, the rout in oil prices. Before this winter, that word was very rarely used.
People are trading in their priuses for range rovers, funny. Basically true even though it makes no sense. People who are bad with money rationalize spending all their 'extra' savings. 75% of lottery winners spend all their winnings within a few years. Pathetic.
Openfolio, a site on which investors share information about themselves and their investments, most Americans didn’t meet that low threshold. Only one-third of investors made money on the year, according to Openfolio, and the average American lost 3.1%.
There are some notable regional differences in this data, too: perhaps not surprising, given it’s the seat of Wall Street, the Northeast did the best over 2015 with an average decline of 1.7%. More interesting: The Southeast did the poorest.
In general, investors tend to invest in companies that have headquarters near where the live, a trend Openfolio data has shown in the past. Investors in the Northeast, for example, are more heavily invested in financial companies than are others; investors in the West in technology. And for investors in the South, it’s energy. Oil saw what felt like an unending crash in 2015 and took energy stocks along with it: Energy was -- by a huge margin -- the worst performing S&P sector, ending the year down 22%. Overexposure to energy in Southern investors’ portfolios is the main reason that region saw an average decline of nearly 4%.
I made over 20% last year, im glad i dont think like most people.
My beautiful wife tells me how to trade.
Altogether, the global stock markets lost $2.3 trillion in market cap in the first four days of 2016, according Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Some $12 billion in funds fled U.S. equities, the largest in 17 weeks, he said. Tech-focused funds were the most severely hit, with $600 million exiting, the biggest in 19 weeks.
So far its a similar drop to the one back in august but hardly anyone is saying its just a correction this time. Maybe we will really go down for awhile.
Not too different from a chinese finger trap.
China sold heavy after opening and hit its 7% limit. Third time this week. The shanghai comp is at 3125 but i heard a third of their hedge funds will be forced to start selling. Sounds like a strong push to 3000. Its all time high was a bit over 6000 back in 2007, followed by a drop to the 1740's. Scary, yet awesome. Over a 70% plunge. I doubt that will happen again. Maybe 2007 was their 1929. 2015 is their 2000.
Failure is the mother of success.
REUTERS
China has shut its share market for the day after a meltdown in early trade.
Shares plunged 5% when the market opened, triggering a new “circuit-breaker” closure of markets for 15 minutes.
When trade resumed, the selling continued, with the benchmark CSI300 falling through 7%, triggering an automatic shutdown of trading for the rest of the day.
The market was only open for around 15 minutes of trade.
It’s the second time this week that China has had to shut its markets under the new rules designed to avoid panic selling of shares. But today, the circuit-breakers were invoked much faster than they were earlier in the week.
Maybe the shanghai comp index will hit 2500, or lower. Its basically china's 1929 crash. its really bad. Chinas brightest minds and most influential communists have no control. the government has wasted tons of money trying to prop up the market. Its really the first big embarrassment china has had during my life. They should have let americans and brits influence their market the way they do in macau casinos and hong kong finance. Pride is a sin. A few politicisns get rich, everyone else gets poor.
Industry monitoring should be done all the time.
Oil is down about 40%
Retail is down about 35%
Agriculture is down about 25%
Autos are down about 20%
Tech is also down 20%
Banks are down about 10%
Food is down about 10%
Military is at all time highs
They are starting to pile up. When enough get close to -40%, the broad market crashes
The market rise that began in March 2009 is now the third longest in history. That argues for shifting some of your stock assets to stable, large companies. Ned Davis Research has found that while small companies have the most sizzle in the first two-thirds of a bull, the advantage shifts to the big blue chips in the final third. Shares in large-company stocks also tend to be less volatile. That’s important now. “The bull can continue to run for another one to two years,” says Anthony Valeri, investment strategist for LPL Financial. “The caveat is you should expect volatility to pick up.”
I doubt it. Its funny how people refer to the market as continuing to rise when it has not risen in several months. How can the bull market keep going up when it has been going sideways. Equities lost steam awhile ago. Its not hard to believe that confidence, meaning prices, have been propped up by low oil prices. But that will create and is creating long term problems which will gaurantee a quick crash.
I love Gabita. My wife is wonderful.
Good riddance, 2015.
Nearly 70% of investors lost money this year, according to Openfolio, an app that allows people to track their investment performance and compare their portfolio with other users.
U.S. markets had their worst year since the financial crisis. No wonder making money was tough.
"While the S&P 500 is on track to end 2015 almost exactly where it started, earnings have deteriorated," says Matt Coffina of Morningstar.
My wife is beautiful.
My assets look pretty good too.
2015 was mostly good for me, 2016 should be very interesting.
