sfsamperi.blogspot.com

You have to survive

You have to survive
Every day is a battle, survival is rule #1

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Not much reason to watch those international ETF's that i found last week since everything turned up with the american market/euro/greek reversal. 

The hourly trade that i would have gotten into on SP500 futures is still going.  I would be up almost 27 pts as of right now ( $1350 per contract).  That would be nice for only a few days of watching a trade work.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

If i did enter that ES hourly trade that i saw yesterday, it would be up well so far.

Also found a good 5 point move on the 5 minute chart.  Problem is it was from 2 and 6 in the morning.  I would never be trading at that time anyways.  It must have happened because of traders in London because thats the first half of the LSE trading hours.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

The hourly short i was waiting on before today never made a close below its S/R line and instead reversed back up strongly.  Thats why i wait for a close past the line first.

Today, i found another nice 5 min move that i would have gotten into if i didn't have to sleep.  This one is extra interesting to me because it would require the pullback/crossover entry at 20 EMA.  This is a good example of when i would actually use this set-up.  I would use it when the "breakout" price move is so strong, it goes vertical quickly which would make it overextended/overbought in the short term.  I would have entered here right after the stochastics crossed while sitting on the 20 EMA.

There is also an hourly entry at 1288 that i would enter.  This would be a normal entry set-up since it wasn't so vertical and looks more like a steady 45 degree climb on the hourly chart.


Market is still thinking about where to go on the daily chart...

Monday, June 27, 2011

Don't know if ill be awake at the time, but after making all my charts show "extended session", i see a really good hourly short set up.  The daily trend is already down.  The hourly trend is already very strong going down and i would short on a solid close past the major low.

i like this description:

Much of the stupidity we see exhibited by others is due to laziness. It takes effort to be knowledgeable, and some people just don't take the time necessary to be informed.

Friday, June 24, 2011

EIS - israel, EWI - italy, EWN - netherlands, THD - thailand, EWH - hong kong and EWA - australia are not available to borrow.  Most are setting up for what looks like nice sell offs.  I will at least watch them to see how well they sell off.

I did see a nice 5.75 pt move on the 5 min sp500 futures chart this morning.  i couldn't trade it since i was sleeping.  hopefully i can get into an hourly move soon.  i should be able to day trade on mondays from now on if i want to.  with a little luck i can get some decent practice on mondays by watching 5 minute charts.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011


i was wondering why my futures chart stopped printing bars after 3:15.  oops, i forgot my charts were set on 'no extended session' quotes.  i i prefer to show no extended session on daily and hourly charts, but on 5 min its a bad idea.  sp500 futures didn't pull back enough to let me enter.  it turned out to be about a +4 point ($200 per contract) move. 
Looked at global etf's again.  Wanted to sell Israel short right away but it isn't available to short. Oh well i'll just watch it and see what it does.

Waiting on EWI - italy, EWN - netherlands, THD - thailand, EWH - hong kong and EWA - australia to close past their major S/R levels and then i'll think about entering them for daily trades.

I did see what looked like a good entry for me on the 5 minute chart.  I missed it but ill try to get in at the same price in the evening.  if not then ill just watch it.

i printed out another entry checklist.  This time it has each step printed on a chart.  the little pictures i tried squeezing in between my rules on the last checklist were looking a little too crappy.  Best checklist i have ever made, so far.

Friday, June 17, 2011

I was really wanting practice.  The mistake i made on this is something i normally do.  I was assuming it was "strong again" since it was temporarily holding at the 20 again, but now i see that this is pointless.  once the strong trend is breached, i should consider weak from then on.  if i ever considered it strong again, it should have been after several successful tests of the 20 ema, not just "probably one".  oh well, tiny .5% loss.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

sold short the /ES sp500 futures at 1pm today at 1259.50 for an hourly trade.  i dont know if i will be able to watch it when it happens to give an exit signal but ill try.  i want the practice.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

I have the patience needed to only get into the best setups on the daily chart but right now, there is nothing that i like and i've hardly gotten into anything lately.  I have been busy though but i still should have been trading more.  I want to be patient for setups but i dont want to give up money.  i might try to find an equity to trade here and there.  if an index futures ever looks really good i would make that a priority.  maybe i can just trade index futures on the hourly chart with my new work schedule coming and if im using pivot hi's and lo's again.  with that trailing stop i can use stop orders that require a close past.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Exited my ZBU1 30 yr futures trade today.  market bounced well off of its 200 ema and that made my bond futures go the other way.  out with a tiny $31.25 gain.  not sure what percentage my 000'01 gain is worth?  kind of confusing with the bonds...

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

went ahead and exited my lumber trade for a 2% loss.  i didn't like how it was acting.  now, i think i should either exit using pivot hi's/lo's or ema's as trailing stop.    the ema's confuse me sometimes and the pivot method is easier for me to use.  i remember using it a long time ago with great success.  i had too many possible exits.  it sounds good to me but mainly relying on one makes more sense in the long run.  i will try to exit using pivot highs and lows, a close past a recent hi/lo will make me exit.  this works very well when trading in trends.

only holding 30 yr futures long now.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

I do think that universities have brainwashed society into making too many people go to college, spend lots of money, get into lots of debt, hardly learn anything and take classes for degrees that noone cares about.  To get a good job, its just as important to have related work experience in your desired field as your required degree.  Many dont really hear about this concept until their last year of college, as i did.  I felt like i hardly learned anything in 4 years of college.  I feel like i had learned much more out of class and after i graduated.  In college i was too busy cramming and memorizing for tests, none of us cared about actually understanding anything because you didn't earn points for that.  Then when you needed to understand something, you didn't get any extra time, only enough to memorize.  Also, when i began attending college noone mentioned to me about how critical having experience is for getting a good job.  There are people with work experience and no degrees making just as much money as many college graduates.  Later on i realized that 99% of jobs that require degrees also require several years of experience.  You would have to work in a job related to your degree, all through college, just to meet the "minimum requirements" of employers when you graduate.  And if you want to start your own business, school matters even less and experience matters even more.  Cutting back on education is now on the table since the government debt levels are so high.

As Mark Twain once remarked: "I never let schooling interfere with my education".

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

My lumber trade "did good" today but if it gets any worse i will have to kill it.  My 30 year bond trade is looking great after today.  I already took a nice gain from lumber earlier so if this lumber trade doesn't work it would be like one big break-even trade.  We'll see what happens.