People repeat

Industries go through business cycles, people go through opinion cycles.

I have listened to financial news often for a while now, years really.  I hear the same opinions at different times.  Generally, people who like to give their opinions either try to predict where a market is headed or explain where a market currently is.  In the media, i hear every opinion all the time, so that doesnt help.  Predicting is impossible so i ignore that completely.  Current status is valuable and i pay attention to that.  Opinions on current status of a market goes through a cycle.  I didnt need to be aware of this cycle to make money on my oil stock but in hindsight i see it as another confirmation one could use. 

When a market peaks, certain opinions are more common.  When a market starts to drop others are more common.  The same goes for when a drop has gone on for awhile, when a bottom is met, when a rise begins, when a rise has gone on for awhile and back to the peak.

I always hear every opinion but there is usually a more common opinion at any moment or maybe a lack of or a certain combination.  The questions people ask change throughout a the cycle too.  Right now people are surprised to hear someone is investing in oil even though most believe oil is only going up this year.  Its as if most agree oil will probably go up, opinions differ by how much, but if someone actually backs up what they say...oh wow, they have skin in the game, i wonder what will happen, interesting.....which doesnt make sense to me at first.  Then i remember how financial news media is dominated by people who have no real confidence.  They either talk for a living and merely dabble here and there with trading assets, or they follow random textbook style protocols while managing other peoples money, not their own money.  So either way their is a psychological barrier keeping them safe, keeping them from being wrong and losing all THEIR OWN money.  No confidence.  No skin in the game.  Thats a weird saying.

Many will start to get into oil now, after several companies have gained at least 10 or 15 percent.  But the time to really get in was when people were obsessed with falling rig counts and layoffs.