sfsamperi.blogspot.com

You have to survive

You have to survive
Every day is a battle, survival is rule #1

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Godfather of wall street??

‘Godfather’ of chart analysis says the stock-market correction is over
Said Barbara Kollmeyer
Technical analyst Ralph Acampora went on a mini tweet storm a day after Wall Street stocks closed at 2016 highs

Rebound will keep happening for commodities, emerging markets, says Ralph Acampora

The direction for stocks is north, says this technical guru.

Ive never heard of Ralphy, but he must have a nice reputation.  We'll see what happens. 

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Emerging Markets

So, t rowe price manages my 401k and there will be some changes since April 1 will be the day Cameron and Schlumberger merge. I wont be able to buy CAM anymore and for some reason SLB will not be available for me to buy.  I chose to buy DFEMX which is an emerging markets fund.  i only have 16 different assets to buy and most either move the same or lack volatility.  My options are very limited but ill make it work.  DFEMX is about 20% from its all time high and has been in a trendless slump for a few years.  It has a weird chart with many holdings.  Maybe it will crash for me, maybe not.  I hope i will benefit from it if oil goes up, dollar goes down, china goes up or something major happens. Its chart mirrors Ford Motor Co which i cant explain. Ford will probably move lower so maybe that means i can get a better price for DFEMX.  :-)

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

No change

Its getting boring.  The sp500 is hovering a little below its all time highs.  Oil is going up like a snail but thats something. Most of the action lately has been for swing traders and day traders.  Im still buying CAM which will become SLB, so im basically getting SLB about 35% off its high.  Thats a good thing.  Hopefully my 401k will have something that drops when SLB moves up above $85.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Beach house

The equity market is still being propped up.  Oil is rising but the dollar is falling.  This is keeping buying and selling pressures about the same.  The sp500 is not too far from its all time highs again.  Equities will need a decent storm to knock over the current house before there is a real downturn.  The house is propped up pretty well.  Im thinking a major market selloff is now pending our presidential election.  I need to check my 401k choices to see if anything is low.  My current choice probably wont be a good deal anymore by this fall.

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Dead stock market walking

Someone decsribed the market as the walking dead.  Right now a snapshot of the health of public companies will be ok on average.  people argue this and that. At the end of the day, we have an equity market which is now trendless after years of solid expansion which took indices to new all time highs. There would have to be some fundamental change to be the cataclyst for another expansion.  I dont see anything right now.  There is no excitement about any particular industry carrying the rest.  There is no breakthrough techology changing everyones lives right now.   If you are arguing against a major market downturn, you are basically arguing against business cycles.  At best, the equity market will go sideways for another year or two, then start another expansion.  Hopefully i will.be able to buy indices cheap in my 401k soon. Oil wont be at a big discount much longer.

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

When schools invest

The ivy league universities have some large endowements right now.  Most major schools have a billion or more.  Harvard has $38 billion and Yale has $26 billion.  They might have 10-15% of it in hedge funds.  I don't see anything wrong with it.  Endowement funds are meant to be invested, whether its in bonds/equities/etf's/index funds/derivatives/currencies/commodities or whatever should not matter.  To give a portion of it to a hedge fund to basically manage for them does not mean much.  Im sure I would consider most funds overdiversified but thats another issue.
 
People might make fun of Harvard and say they are a hedge fund with a school, but all the best schools are endowement basically that.  The best schools are 'funds with a school'.  For some reason people don't say anything until the phrase 'hedge fund' is mentioned.  If they pulled out of hedge funds it would not change anything.  Hedge funds have a negative connotation, just like being a 'trader'.  For some reason its bad to be a trader, but good to be an investor.  Its bad to be a hedge fund, but good to be a mutual fund.  Stereotypes from media i guess.

They get tax breaks so they invest like crazy and are under bad management if they don't invest like crazy.  Maybe one day I can make trades for a nice school, maybe for an alma matter.  They would probably be too risk averse to let me do everything I want but with luck I could find a school that is hungry for growth.  Or I could just leave trading to my own account, who knows.