Good chance that oil will only go up from $28 brl. It went over 34 today. People are hinting that opec will slow production. High volatility in oil/oil stocks.
Maybe in a couple months i will stop buying CAM/SLB and just hold it for a while. Then i would have to buy something else. There are a few things that im watching.
Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has produced average total returns of about 9% per year. This not only includes the current correction, but the financial crisis, dot-com bubble, and 1987 crash, which all occurred during this time period. The point is, it's safe to say no matter what's happening now, stocks still perform well over the long run.
However, the average investor has produced an average annual total return of less than 2% during the same time period. How can this be?
The problem is that investors are people, and people are emotional. When stocks fall sharply like they've done recently, many people panic and sell in fear of their stocks going down even more. And, when the market is going up and up, that's when investors are most willing to throw their money in. In other words, we all know that the point of investing is to buy low and sell high, but emotion causes investors to do the exact opposite.
......same thing w buffet and i would say. Im like w buffet but with 99.9% less money and i look at charts, he researches companies in person/corporate raider sometimes.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) (NYSE: BRK-A) has produced average returns of 21.6% per year over the past 50 years, while the average investor garnered about 2% over the past 30. What's the difference? Easy -- the average investor gets nervous when prices fall and sells at a loss. And, when they see everyone else making money on "it" stocks like Tesla and Amazon.com, they buy when prices are already high. In other words, common sense tells us that the goal of investing is to buy low and sell high, but many investors do the exact opposite.
He is politely saying some people trade on emotions and are completely wrong. Some people create bubbles and burst together.
All i have been buying for the past 13 months was CAM stock. My broker sends me emails occasionally saying all my money is in stock and thats risky. They want me to diversify. Most of what i can purchase was at or near their highs and are down only 5-25%. My avg share price in CAM is well below 25%. Im happy with what i have done. If i was diversified i would have had worse performance.
By Shawn Langlois, MarketWatch
Hey, don’t let a few market hiccups to start the year bum you out too much. Strategists predict gains by the end of the year! Just like they did last year. And the year before that. And the year before that, all the way back to 1998, according to one Georgetown professor who crunched the numbers during that time frame to come to this conclusion: The Wall Street pros are “full of bull.”
Salil Mehta, in a deep dive for the Statistical Ideas blog, examined 186 public forecasts, which he culled from 19 years of media coverage. For starters, the strategists have called for a positive year more than 95% of the time, while the market has only been up 73% of the time.
So...analysts pretty much say the same thing no matter what. They are usually not traders themselves, so they dont have real experience. They prefer to predict gains so they can be positive petes, since noone likes a negative nancy. they simply extrapolate good trends or consider downturns to be temporary, to hold onto an extrapolated trend they are married to.
The best advise i can give is to either save your money in gauranteed, low return assets or follow the advice of a consistently profitable trader. Listening to advisors, analysts and random other people will keep your gains random, messy, volatile, unpredictable and emotionally driven. Do you ask random people to perform surgery on u? No, u get a surgeon. Dont ask random people to tell u where to put ur money. Get a trader. So much logic is lost when people handle wealth.
There are four psychological stages that people go through during a bear market. Right now, investors know the market is struggling but most believe it will come back. In fact, many see this as a buying opportunity. Here are the four stages:
Stage 1: Denial
Right now, we’re in the denial stage. Anyone who is bullish is too stubborn to change his or her view. Many people have their head in the sand, and some may not even look at their January statements. Many believe the market will come back. Right now, many are still buying the dips, which does not work in a bear market. This is similar to what has happened to oil.
Stage 2: High Anxiety
In this stage, many investors are like a deer in the headlights. They are frozen and nervous but don’t do anything. They are told by brokers and financial experts to stay calm and don’t panic. We haven’t reached this stage yet.
Stage 3: Fear
In this stage, the rampant bulls finally realize they are in trouble. If they have bought stocks on margin, they might be getting calls from their broker to add money to losing positions. In this stage, they are watching in fear as their portfolio burns. They reluctantly start to take action as fear increases. Often they say to themselves, “When my stock gets back to even, I will sell.”
Stage 4: Panic
This is what I call the “uncle” stage. This is when panicked investors throw in the towel and take action. They want to get out of the market while they still have something left. At this stage, there is huge downside volume and double-digit declines on the indexes. At the end of Stage 4, many people vow to never buy stocks again. We are not even close to this stage yet. Typically, we hit bottom when investors capitulate after losses of 20% to 50% in their stock portfolios.
I like this. The 4 step plan to be a horrible tader. Its what i had to grow out of. Most of us start out this way when we marry a stock for the first time. I never really got to step 4. Gabita es bonita.
