Researching

I know I get distracted easily and my imagination is rediculous but i have been thinking.
What I like about the way I have been trading is that it really tests and shows off my exit strategy.  The comparison between various sized gains and smallish losses means gains overall.  But i think it is time for me to increase my odds.  So i will add one more basic concept.  Reversals at major S/R lines.  Instead of just using minor S/R for my entry and letting whatever random trend tell me what direction to go in,  I will base my direction on reversing from the first major S/R that price hits after the open.

Major S/R lines drawn using recent peaks and troughs on 30 min chart.  Various lines can be drawn.  I will enter on 5 min chart, assuming a reversal at whichever line price hits first after the market opens.

It makes sense to me that It should increase the odds of me getting a gain and the overall size of my gains.  Looking back at previous days this works very well but now I will test it in real time for the next few weeks or so.

/ES 2 point loss Wednesday, no trade Thursday

I made a mistake on Tuesday, I should not have traded at all since I was unsure about what I should do.

I lost 2 points on Wednesday, a legitimate loss.  I dont mind the legitimate losses that "just go the wrong way" and i take 1 or 2 points for the loss.  But i really don't like the losses I have sometimes which are based on some mistake.

Today, i would not have traded since I was unsure about what I should do.  it was not the set up that I like and base all my odds on so I skipped today.

/ES 2.5 point loss

I did not have a small channel to base my buy/sell decision on at the open this time.  I made a mistake and tried to find some new reason to base my decision on at the last minute.  Maybe it is fine to look back at the trend but Im sure I made a mistake at that.  In the end, I should not do anything different from what I am sure about while trading.  I know better and I feel bad about it.

2.5 point loss.  after entering I was stopped out very soon.

/ES 2 point loss $$

Price was moving slow, i sold short at resistance on what looked like a small falling channel going into the open, I was stopped out after a close past a trailing stop but with the market order to cover I ended up exiting right at my initial stop of 2 points.

Sticking to my plan using real money

I must follow what I have been doing because overall it works very well for me.  Over the summer i found several mistakes that I had made but almost every mistake would have been avoided if i had just followed my plan.  I get distracted easily and I have a vivid imagination.  Even if something has been wonderful lately I can easily consider changing almost everything because I am very interested in anything related to trading.

I must follow my plan every morning and change nothing.

small uptrend going into open = buy at support
small downtrend....................= sell at resistance

trend = squiggly movement, usually a near perfect channel shape, has peaks and troughs

enter at or near market open 8:30 am central time.

exit after a close past 2 point stop loss or trailing stop
trailing stop = new recent trough (when buying) or new recent peak (when selling)

Because of my exit strategy where I want to keep losses small but let my gains get big, if I only had a 50% chance of being correct on market direction that would be fine.  By choosing my direction based on a small trend leading into the open i believe that I can get a little better than 50% on direction, maybe more like 65% ....hard to tell so far.  I just know that all summer after trading in real time on most days or looking back to see what I would have done and the result, there would be a mixture of losses, gains, a break-even trade and a couple of missed gains.  My gains were at least 50% of my trades and there is a significant profit, all based on trading 1 S&P 500 emini contract, 1 trade per day.  I would have had a net gain of about $1400 for the month of July alone.

I will probably trade with real money soon but nothing will change.  I am just hoping that my first few trades are good so I do not need to worry about adding more to cover the margin requirement.

/ES 1.5 point loss

Price became choppy and quiet after I entered.  Barely hanging in there half the time but eventually I took a $75 loss.