sfsamperi.blogspot.com

You have to survive

You have to survive
Every day is a battle, survival is rule #1

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Both index futures appear to be setting up for a nice move, but Nasdaq looks a little more rewading than SP500. No other entries, just watching these two on hourly charts.

March was pretty quiet for me since i was avoiding entering new trades most of the time. I gradually exited the trades i had and things got interesting when i began thinking about trading again. I had a good time at the Rodeo and tonight at the 3 point shooting and slam dunk contest. Everyone kept booing Karl Malone when he was interviewed. Im glad i got to be with my pretty girlfriend. Now i have pictures with farm animals and Clutch, the Houston Rockets mascot.

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

At first i thought i needed to trade differently if i wanted to get into market indeces. Which is true. But now im thinking that not requiring a large expansion bar, volume and consolidaiton might be an overall improvement, no matter what im trading. It would make everything simpler. Looking for something thats in a solid trend with no resistance would summarize what im doing. Ill keep looking into it. If i stop requiring some of my usual signals, then i would have to decide which assets to focus on. Futures, stocks, etf's......all? Some assets im watching on the daily chart: EWA, EWQ, EWO, ALJ, ALXN, /GC, /HE, /HO, /QM.







I exited my /ES futures trade for about a 10 point gain. That would be a $500 gain if i was trading one contract. When i put on the trade yesterday i was looking at it on the daily chart, but since i realized that was a mistake. The market's daily chart is not in an obvious uptrend so i was gambling a little on the market's uptrend really being there or not. The 4hr chart actually showed the strong trend that i wanted along with a closer target level. If im not picking stocks with nice consolidation breakouts during a market uptrend, and im just trading the market when its trending, then i think this is what i would do. I look for an area with no resistance and then i enter using the time frame with a strong trend, adjusting my target level closer if needed. Ill post this trade here since i will probably want to keep looking back at it for myself. I don't know if i would normally want to make hourly trades.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

/ES futures long entry

Other market ETF's are an option for me to trade IF my market is not good enough. The combination of much lower % rewards and my market usually not taking long to "look good again" makes me wonder when i would ever really want to trade other markets. There might not even be a good ETF to get into when my market happens to be going sideways. Ill keep thinking about it. Sometimes i think about trying to enter trades on pullbacks to ema's. normally i require a large expansion bar to give me better odds of getting into a move, but if everything is already trending then i might not need that kind of help. Maybe i could do a mix of both?


Posting my recent charts of international ETF's put into perspective what im really going for. My goal is to find the area's between s/r levels. People call these areas different names. To me its just an area of low resistance. From now on i need to focus on that area to get into. I also remembered how i would prefer to trade market indices if i could, over individual stocks. i like looking at different charts of overall markets.


I made my first futures trade in a long time. I went ahead and entered a trade with the sp500 futures (/ES). If i didn't have enough real money i could just trade the SPY ETF which tracks it. Since the market appears to be staying above its 20 ema, ill go ahead and assume its in an uptrend again, at least temporarily. This is a small move but i dont care. Ill take small or large moves if that's what's being offered to me. No stocks looked good today anyways.

Monday, March 28, 2011

The SP500 appears to be settling into another uptrend but i dont like the resistance that is still in the way. It still wont be a good time for me to buy for a couple more weeks i think. Maybe i can start trading in some other market?

GUR, EWQ, EWO, EWA, RSX and SPX are the markets that i like the best. The grey box shows the height of a low resistance area that the markets could easily move up in. EWQ represents France and SPX represents the America. They are the worst ones of all these. But each has a chance at easily trending up for several weeks straight.

Emerging Europe, Spain, Italy, France, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Germany

The different markets in Europe vary more than you might think. They vary in volatility, relativity and trading volume.


GUR is an ETF that represents the emerging markets of czech republic, poland, turkey,hungary and russia. It is in a really good trend right now but is touching a rising resistance line. It might just ease through that line and continue up much higher. It is not showing any fear at all yet.


EWP is an ETF for Spain. Spain looks pretty bad. It is nowhere near being in a solid trend for me but it would be interesting to watch if it ever gets above $52. Then it could move well.



EWI is an Italian ETF. Italy looks terrible! Probably the worst chart i have seen in all the world, literally. Good luck to anyone who is long Italia.


EWQ is a French ETF that i could trade. France looks like it just needs one good pop up and then it could turn into a nice trend. Its chart looks very similar to Italy's but with a little more powerful buying.

EWL is an ETF for Switzerland. This country's stock market is already getting into its 2007 high's. Its been in a fairly strong trend but the future is iffy. It would be perfectly normal if Switzerland got real choppy this summer/fall. That is not good for trend following. EWU is an ETF for the United Kingdom. The UK is already having trouble with its current resistance level. Not too bad of a chart. Trends could open up here and there. I am using weekly charts for analyzing these countries. If price for the UK ETF gets up to $19, it could then have a month long uptrend to trade before it hits another resistance level. The uptrend would be about 4-6 bars on this weekly chart.


EWD is an ETF that tracks Sweden. It looks like Sweden is running into trouble and will probably be choppy for a while. Sweden is getting close to its 2008 highs and has already gained back its losses more than many other countries. Better look elsewhere for a long, solid uptrend. EWK is an ETF that tracks Belgium. Belgium has a fairly depressing chart. Kinda dead and quiet lately with price still below the 200 ema. If it ever makes it over the 200 ema than it has room to go.
I thought Austria and Germany make a good comparison. EWO is the Austrian ETF and EWG is the Germany ETF. Austria- where Arnold Schwarzeneggar is from. Germany - where people think Arnold Schwarzeneggar is from.


Austria is one big rise away from being free to trade up for a very good distance. The 2nd half of this year could turn out to be very good for the austrian stock market.


Germany reminds me of the American market since it has several resistance levels in the way. It might have a little unnecessary volatility.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Netherlands, Thailand, Canada, Australia

I was checking out more markets from around earth. Im thinking about all the different markets or assets i could trade when my own doesn't look good enough for me. I haven't entered any new trades in several weeks since i didnt like my SP500. But other parts of the world might have tempted me if i had thought about it. Its getting a little too late now since the SP500 is probably starting another uptrend.


EWN is a Netherlands ETF that i could trade. This market has some decent room to move up. It has been in a weak trend but maybe over the next couple months it will stay in a strong trend. Its price might stay above its 20 ema until it hits its next resistance level. Whenever i hear "Netherlands" , i always think of the "nether realm" in mortal kombat.

THD is the Thailand ETF that i could trade. This ETF hasnt been around for as long as i would like but i can see how its had a stronger uptrend than many countries. Thailand has moved up very, very well in the past 2 years but its been choppy lately and has a couple resistance levels to trade through if it wants to keep going up.


Canada's EWC ETF looks pretty bad if you want to ride an uptrend. Canada just has too much resistance right ahead.

New Zealand's ETF hadn't been around that long so its chart was not good to look at but EWA is an Australian ETF and its an interesting chart. Australia has been held down. It looks like price is carrying an anvil. Maybe it has to do with all the flood, fire and earthquake disasters this year. It is only one or two positive weeks away from possible taking off on decent rally to its next resistance level. Not much room to go once a breakout did happen but maybe enough.

Saturday, March 26, 2011




Its getting close to my bedtime but i cant sleep yet because i ate too much sugar and its my girlfriend's fault. Gabriela you are my heart!

I checked out the RSX ETF that i could trade which represents the russian stock exchange. It is very interesting when compared to the american market. Both markets have been pushing up well for a while and have only slowed down briefly at two prior high resistance levels. Both appear to be getting past their 2nd resistance levels right now. The interesting part is how the american market will have to fight its way up through several prior highs. The russian market seems to have a pretty clear path ahead. This is a good time for the Russians to put out as much good news as possible and trigger a nice long continution of the current trend. If handled correctly, the russian market should be able to easily and steadily climb all the way back up to its 2008 highs before hitting any major resistance. The American market could keep going up as well but it would be a little harder to trade. The several resistance levels in the way will create some unnecessary volatility.

Friday, March 25, 2011

finally was able to get out with a tiny gain of 0.4% for EL. i should have gotten out earlier for a tad more profit but i wanted to follow the same exit strategy no matter how long it took. once things got choppy i should have looked for a quick, small exit at a prior high.

I got a 1% gain with LGND. It was kind of a wacky trade and wasn't in a typical uptrend like im used to. I think it was more vulnerable to a pullback than i thought. I will avoid stuff like this. After LGND i am holding no stocks now, for the first time in a long time.

i looked through a lot of stocks but nothing looked good yet. maybe monday or tuesday i can enter something new.

Thursday, March 24, 2011


Over in Egypt thanks to a CNN article online, their stock exchange opened on the 23rd for the first time in months. Outside the stock market, the orderly palm-lined street was mostly empty, with the exception of soldiers and armored personnel carriers. Security has been increased since some protesters demanded on Tuesday that the exchange not reopen.
Mohamed Abdel Salam, who is the chairman of Ministry for Clearing and Settlement, will serve as chairman of the exchange for 6 months, a government statement said this week.
He said this century old building has housed the Egyptian stock market since 1903. Never in the history of Egypt or the world, however, has he seen a stock market closed for such a long period.
The markets have been closed since January 27. A political uprising that began two days earlier resulted in the eventual overthrow of then-President Hosni Mubarak.
On Saturday, Egyptian voters overwhelmingly approved proposed constitutional amendments that pave the way for parliamentary elections in June.
An estimated 45 million Egyptians were eligible to vote in what was widely viewed as the country's first free election in decades, and the poll sets the stage for parliamentary and presidential elections later this year.
The proposed amendments included limiting the president to two four-year terms, capping emergency laws to six months unless they are extended by public referendum, and placing elections under judicial oversight.

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Back in America the market closed up above all its ema's so ill probably start buying again by monday, after the market shows staying strength on Friday. I exited WTW yesterday and it happened to drop today. My LGND and EL

People on TV were going on about how its a teflon market, it just keeps going, its resilient, nothing is slowing it down, its been up for 5 out of the last 6 days, its the biggest move up since december!, keeps pushing up even with so much uncertainty around the globe, would you have guessed it would be this high with all thats going on in the country?, a market that just wont quit!, its the "nothing matter" rally, its the "steady as she goes" rally, the "what me worry" rally, DOW is 2% from its highs, is the rally real?

They create so much excitement over a typical bounce. This week has been a normal, decent little reversal move. Public had been selling choppily and now they are buying. The market has gone up overall after several days but with no gap ups.a couple of near flat days and one down day. Its been a very ordinary period of buying. There are the same good and bad things going on in the world as any other time, wars and disasters, same as usual. If you look into it, there will always be several explanations for any buying or selling. I only buy based on prices, not reasons, so i dont care about "why" its moving. I just think about "if" it is moving. Im glad its looking ready to start another uptrend again but its really not that exciting unless you are on the happy side of your bi-polar personality today.

I guess while most people are wondering is the rally is "real", and staying googly eyed i'll start buying since it is moving up. if price is going up then its real. price changing is all that matters.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

exited WTW for a 2.6% loss. i should never have entered that trade. it had a huge gap that turned out to be bad. i guess it was a little experiemental for me. now i know. i did erase half the loss by holding out though, for whatever thats worth.

looks like the market is really trying to push back up into another uptrend again. the ema's are in the way like a wall though.

Friday, March 18, 2011

The market is looking like it could move back into an uptrend and then i could exit WTW for a smaller loss as it hits a prior high that was created after entry. Ill take a loss on this one since after making the trade its huge gap up is not a good buy signal at all. It was expected to fall after the mega gap but i didn't know that.

I read someone's else's commen on marketwatch.com and it reminded me of how ignorant people are about how currencies work. Average people ALWAYS consider a weak currency a bad thing and a strong currency a good thing. Since America CHOOSES to have a weak currency, for good reasons, average people always bash on the US dollar for being so weak. I guess average people will never learn that "strong" doesn't equate to "good" and "weak" doesnt equate to "bad". you could argue that a weak dollar forces us to pay more for imported stuff but a weak dollar also helps our businesses compete globally which is a good thing. No one ever knows what they are talking about and mentions any of that. Strong good.....weak bad.......hmm......meat good........fire hurt......

Thursday, March 17, 2011

lost 4.6% on my CMCSA trade. i exited with mental stop. maybe with more experience i would have exited a little earlier, i dunno.

Still holidng LGND, WTW and EL. Damage control is the main thing for me to do now.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

The death tally is going above 6000 so far in Japan. Some people saying at least 10,000 probably died. Markets have been selling with volatility here. Of course people on TV are saying its because of Japan but its probably just due selling. Im going to wait until there is a strong trend again before entering any new stocks.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

I have been watching my stocks for any new high's that get created as the market keeps wiggling around. I exited BHI for a 2% gain and GNET for a 2.8% gain because they rallied up to a prior high. I think taking these small gains are a good idea since the market keeps chopping around, not really going anywhere.

still not trying to enter anything new yet but i am thinking maybe i should check out anther market while the stocks are trendless.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Still waiting on the daily chart for the sp500 to pick a direction. After wiggling around the 20 ema for the first half of March, it now looks like it is starting to consolidate on the 50 ema now. after that it could pick a direction. going back up would be fine. if it decided to drop from the 50 ema then that would put me in a new situation. i would probably avoid trading on this time frame for a while until its in a strong trend again, whether up or down.

all the trades im currently holding are longs and have been hanging in there so far. i wont jump out of them at the first sign of trouble like i did back in the end of november. i ll just hold on and wait.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Exited MDSO for a 2.2% loss. i wanted to get out sooner than later since it and the market are going sideways, which is bad odds for me. i should have tried to exit even earlier at a new prior hi but i probably wouldn't have been able to get that.

i had a great time at the rodeo last night with my girlfriend. I saw the rascal flatts, took pictures with Elsie and pet a bunch of animals. after the concert the really big carnival got overwhelmingly crowded. people were literally pouring in, thousands of people. so we left and didnt even ride anything. while i was doing that, Japan had the worst earthquake in the world in 140 years.

our stock market went up well today but the TSE was obviously having problems. i dont think the earthquake will be a temporary setback at all like some people on tv. over 1000 people have died and im sure they are still counting. for a modern, developed, industrial nation to lose that many people from a natural disaster is huge. that should give you an idea of how costly all the damage will be. and this is a country who is used to earthquakes. its in their culture to worry about earthquakes. im sure it will taint most of the nation's business for the rest of the year, at the least.

oil is still trading down. i keep putting in only 1/4 tank into my car cuz i keep thinking the prices at the gas stations should drop any day. but they keep hovering around $3.35 a gallon. i guess it wont actually go down until everyone else starts nickel and diming it like me. gas stations charge you more if oil prices rise, but they only charge you less if you stop buying it. people have to fill up several times at high prices before they remember they have to live under a budget and start to conserve, and thats why gas stations lower prices slowly. even if oil prices dropped from $100+ a barrel down to $20 a barrel, if people mindlessly kept paying the $100+ barrel - gas prices at the pump, gas stations would never lower their own prices and get super rich.

Thursday, March 10, 2011


market is still wiggling sideways. one day its up much. then its down much. then a quiet day. then up much. then down much. today happens to be a "down much" day.

Qaddafi of Lybia did bomb is own oil refineries, which is funny to me. Spain had delayed bailout talks by selling a bunch of bonds earlier, but now europe is having to deal with that stuff again. Middle east country protests are still affecting oil. oil has been falling slightly so thats probably the end of the oil rally.

i was wondering if i should require TL's as support again, like i used to. that really helped me a lot before but now that im trading with strong trends it just might not happen often enough, but ill keep it in mind.

still not trying to enter anything new, just holding my trades and wanting them to hit their close targets for quicker? profits. quiet day for me. i am relaxed and i feel like im in control of my trading. just waiting.

Im going to the Rodeo with my pretty gf Gabita!

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Mac had told me that he takes his profit quick if the market gets choppy. I have heard this before, but now i understand how i can do this. Actually, i already was doing it, but now i know what im really doing. I just recently decided to get out at any new resistance after an entry, if new resistance forms. Thats something i have ignored before, and then watched as the stock reversed. Newly formed resistance might be something i can ignore if the market is a powerhouse, but in a choppy movement like how the market is in right now, its definitely a good idea. Im trying to get out at newly formed resistance on all my current trades. Overall my trades have been consolidating while the market wiggles east.

Monday, March 7, 2011

exited SIRO for a 5.4% gain, which itself is good, but looking back i should have not exited just recently for a loss. My SIRO trade should have been a small gain.

my test trades are only beginning to have their earnings reports come out but are all over the place. focusing on my normal trades might be all i can handle right now.

apparently my WTW entry, was a bad idea. after huge gaps like that a continuation usually doesnt happen. a pullback is expected instead. ok now i know.

also my "tester" trades and any other trades i might have gotten into just recently were probably at a bad time in the market. i realized this after watching one of Mac's (chart swing trader) videos for march 7. i need to make sure i only get in when the market is in a strong trend up, not just when its going sideways but "basically still trending up". in the past week i should not have even tried to enter anything, just looking for setups. the market has been bouncing around sideways and that means its figuring out which way to go, up or down. i have thought about this before, but i need to put it in practice. I remember back when this current uptrend had started that i knew i would have to "figure out" when to stop trading. I knew sometimes im not supposed to enter anything. Well, this is one of those times. Ill just hold onto whatever trades i already have but i wont enter anything new until a new trend starts again. getting a little better at following the market might be all or most of what i need.

Friday, March 4, 2011

entered consolidation/earnings testers, AKS and /HE


A busy day for me, very productive (I found this nice she hulk art). I entered all these just to track them. im thinking about adding consolidation entries to my routine. I just want to see how these trade compare with each other. Some should do bad, others good.












went crazy with pics today. i also entered /HE and AKS as pullback entries. had trouble saving a pic for /HE and AKS. i need to print out another checklist to use for my pullback entry and i can revise my breakout entry checklist also.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Yesterday my MDOEF trade exited for a 1.3% gain. tiny gain compared to its volatility but i wanted to get out at its latest prior high since entry. technically it was a gain, but im considering this a 'bad trade'. its slumped too much after entry. just dont see any advantage in staying in this any longer. flaky demand.

all my other trades are close to exiting for small profits also. the market created new resistance for my stocks since entry so i will use that as an exit, then go on to find new trades with better rewards.

i want to try entering stocks before they make a large bar. the rest of my setup would be the same, but i would enter during the consolidation and wait for the catalyst, such as earnings. the way i have been trading can work well, but as i fine tune it and figure out what to watch out for, it might become harder to find entries. another method would be good to know. really good traders tend to use several.

new setup= consolidation sitting on 20 or 50 ema, flat, long, short. more volume the better. oversold stochastics. enter right before earnings report. exit at next resistance level. this sounds like im "betting on earnings", but if the market and the stock are already in a strong trend, the jokers at the company will probably produce an earnings report that is good.if business has been good, creating a rising trend, chances are the very next earnings report will be good, or not a bad surprise. i want to try this. along with my breakout entries. i put in a bunch of market orders so i can track different stocks and see how they do.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011


Market turned down today so i couldnt get out with my limit orders but i did get out for a .006% loss in TER with a market order. I should never have entered that stock. Market goes down whenever oil goes up right now.

i think i will also start requiring the 4hr chart to be in a strong trend, according to the ema's, price being above and only dipping down to 20 ema.