sfsamperi.blogspot.com

You have to survive

You have to survive
Every day is a battle, survival is rule #1

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

TWC and NAV entries

i decided to exit my CHU(test trade), BXP, CBD, CLF, CNQ and CVC trades. they were a mixed bag but sluggish overall and its because i used a 10/25 EMA breakout but those emas suck basically. even for EMAs instead of SMAs i should still use 20/50. I also added 200. Now im doing a triple hitter breakout. After thinking about bouncing from ema to ema as i talked about yesterday i realized it would change everything i do and i dont like that. All i had to do was add the 200 to the breakout to get even more resistance out of the way. I am considering the old resistance new support so im going long now. The cancelled trades wont be included in my raitos, really no point since they break even overall and i didnt follow them through.

added TWC and NAV long entries. they follow my new requirement, the triple hitter, while using the next intermediate TL as reward. Still holding DBC and CS since they basically follow my triple hitter rule.

Triple-hitter: 20, 50 and 200 EMA's need to be broken through, preferably all by one large bar.





My triple hitter method seems to net 1:1 risk to reward but over time i will see if i should adjust that and place the stop a little closer to entry (somewhere inside entry bar). Im thinking i should wait to enter once the market makes a solid daily bar from a S/R line. Just blindly jumping it at the level to "get in early" seems kinda pointless for me.


Ended the trading day by watching "muscle" corner the intra-day market on S&P500 futures.

Monday, September 27, 2010

CHU entry

GOOD DAY FOR ME, even though my trades were so-so.


i entered a short for CHU, its probably riskier than i will want later but its following the concepts that i just realized i should follow. More curious than anything on this...


lately i have been looking for big down bars that are breaking out of 2 ema's, with the other side of the channel as the target. thats all great but i think that whole setup is more of a specific kind of trade out of the several that i should be looking for.

ADDITIONS: 200 EMA

CHANGES:target is the very next EMA or TL in the way, not just the "other side of the channel". a large bar can breakout of or touch any EMA or TL for entry. stop loss can be at EMA or TL behind entry bar.

I think lately i have been making the mistake of looking for home runs. I was only asking to enter at one side of a channel and exit at the other, but thats basically a home run and too rare for me to even aim for. And instead of "getting the ema's out of the way" cuz they can slow down or reverse my trades......i can use them as targets. The trades i get into would almost always move to the next EMA, at that point they might stop or reverse but they still moved to it, thats why its a good target. thats what daytrader rockstar does. he gets those small thrusts between EMA's or TL's.

My trading will all be the same except for my entry checklist. So reasearch is all the same except i will want the ema's/tl's ahead to be spaced out so any potential trade could move. Im still going to look for shorts when market is at resistance.

NYSE composite and NASDAQ composite .
In my opinion both are butting their heads against resistance with no actual breakout yet. So even though i have been stopped out of 2 stocks cuz of friday's pump, i still feel like shorting is best. Market just looks like its hitting resistance in a typical fashion. No reason to become extremely bullish yet. Nothing to get excited about, just another upper channel test. That must be how it is every day for the pro's....."...just another large gain from this wedge breakout.....just another vacation to schedule....". bastards.
NYSE looks so clean and proffesional compared to NASDAQ. Not only does it have less random gaps, but it fills out the channel much better and even has a bigger downward channel which emphasizes my shorting even more. NYSE has more experienced traders while NASDAQ has more yuppies. I love them all equally though.

My girlfriend's pretty.

Friday, September 24, 2010

quickly stopped out of CBL for a 4.5% loss and FITB for a 3.9% loss. strong pullback in the market, which sounds bad if you are heavily short like i am but in the end price is still sitting at the resistance level so i still need to wait and see which way it really wants to go.

i also got stopped out of CS but i realized i didnt place my stop loss high enough and will reenter in the morning (i will use original entry and correct stop-loss in calculations).

all the different traders on blogger have so many opinions on what to look out for or which way it might go.......we all just have to wait and see. after the open i will be holding 7 trades.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

BXP, CBL, CS, FITB short entries

BIG DAY!
I shorted BXP, CBL, CS and FITB after what looks like the first day of the market selloff i have been anticipating. All four look great to me. Many others caught my eye too but these were the cream. Even if the market didnt selloff back down to daily support i should still get some break even/small gains out of these.







Now im holding 9 stocks including the one long(DBC) that wants to keep chugging along. I posted a video response to some clip of tv people telling how great everything is.


Wednesday, September 22, 2010

CNQ short entry

CNQ looked good today as a short entry. Several other stocks caught my eye but werent quite good enough. Im still assuming the daily S&P500 resistance will hold so im only looking to short right now. Seeing more and more collapses/gap downs each new day this week.

Overall a good day of gains and now holding 4 shorts and 1 long (DBC just hasnt made me exit yet)

Friday, September 17, 2010

CVC, CLF entries

Ive been itching all week to short something since the market has been consolidating at nice resistance. CVC and CLF looked great today. There were several others that i liked but they werent good enough. Today, friday, was the first day all week that had anything to offer me. I think the drop is starting and hopefully i got in at the right time. risk/reward on these are great.



Thursday, September 16, 2010

I exited DBO, it was sluggish from the start. Tiny .1% loss. I think i will avoid those specialized tracking funds from now on, kinda destroys my "reverse with the market" concept. oh yeah, im only looking for reversals when the S&P 500 might reverse. Im not going to watch any specific industries, thats too hard for me to do and fairly pointless since the S&P 500 is the average and they all correlate with its hi/lo's pretty well.

The market is consolidating on its resistance level right now. I will be looking for short entries every day until it finally drops.

Im holding DBC and CBD.
This chart, the non-stop comercials about buying gold, hearing how gold miners are buying each other out to get ready for a huge increase in gold prices, something like 40% of gold buyers right now are "investors" when normally its below 10%, its been on a decade long "rally", my mom mentioned buying gold a month ago,................seems pretty OBVIOUS TO ME that there is a very good chance of gold prices collapsing soon. Buyers will lose steam, demand will shrink, price will drop.

From now on i will watch several different industries to time my trade entries with the S/R tests in their industries. Might as well get in for a reversal if the whole group might reverse too. the more the merrier.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010


stopped out of CHKP today. for some reason it rallied north with the market when my other 3 stocks didnt. 4.3% loss. oh well.

much better volume today than yesterday but no new entries. Only holding DBO, DBC and CBD.

If the market tanked CBD would do great, DBO would get stopped out and DBC would have a small profit.....sounds ok i guess. The market looks like it is slowing down at resistance. im trying to think of how i could time trades with the market since i know thats a concept i should be doing but i have not touched yet...should i just look to short when market's at resistance/buy when at support? hmmmmm...

Friday, September 10, 2010

CBD short entry

Fairly quiet day but i squeezed out this pretty good looking entry. I had to play Karate Champ on NES until the market close neared. The bar could have closed below the daily 25 EMA a little more but i think it only pulled back a little from its low cuz it tanked really bad in the morning so people naturally took their profit. but it started to ease back down enough for me. the risk to reward is great on this one, over 1:5 !!....we'll see what happens.
i am holding 4 trades now going into the weekend. i will keep using my current watchlist plus add more from research over the weekend. this week was short and slow and the old watchlist still looks pretty good, why waste it? ill just double down on the watchlist size for next week.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Nothing looked good at all to enter today. Only holding DBO, DBC and CHKP. Moved DBC stop to break even and everything looks ok so far.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

CHKP short entry

Fairly low volume for the day. It is a jewish holiday. The bar signal im considering this to be was not already on my list but its obvious to me that i shouldnt have skipped this trade. Im considering the last four bars to be a new signal but not sure yet...

holding 3 trades right now and the other two gained today

Monday, September 6, 2010

really quiet day since its a holiday and market is closed...

i will place my stop loss past entry bar and all EMA's for now. i think that is best for the way i trade. EMA's definitely help prevent pullbacks, but in case they dont turn enough right away to do that and remain flat, the large entry bar is usually more than enough to prevent pointless volatility in the wrong direction. i would be in several nice trades in addition to my DBO,DBC trades right now if i had put stop loss past entry bar. my stops were just too tight. i was being a little to risk averse.

im also making sure i get into big channels to raise my avg profit %. even if i would do good in the smaller moves, i would still rather "do less work" in exchange for "slightly less profit in the long-run" by getting into fewer but more profitable moves. i could use small channels if i get desperate.

while i was messaging my beautiful gf, i found out that my STR trade with 212.8% gain was actually a 56.4% gain after a 2-1 stock split. have to adjust my ratios for that one.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

only holding DBO and DBC right now. both turned up nicely for me today after a brief scary pullback right after entry. my stops were big enough so im still in the game now with EMA's behind me. so maybe i can grab a couple of nice gains from these two.

not trying to enter anything cuz i will start my research tomorrow which should have improved trades where the EMA's immediately start protecting from stop outs.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

NFLX stopped me out for a break even trade. I exited CVH for a small 2.6% gain. Both trades were screwed up by the MA's being in the way. I exited EL for a decent gain of 4.1%. EL was a wacky trade cuz of its initial huge gap down followed by an immediate surge back up and then a slow selloff but there was nothing too bad in this trade....i just feel a little cheated from how much it closed across the 20 MA.

I didnt bother to enter anything today since im looking forward to new research with my new rules: instead of MA's being intertwined, i want them to be apart with a close past both of them by entry bar. THIS should bring a significant improvement especially when combined with a target exit level........plus........i am going to use 10 and 25 EMA's from now on instead of 20 and 50 DEMA's. I didnt realize i was using DEMA and thats why stockcharts.com wasnt making sense. Pretty much the same thing and wont affect my trading at all but it will let me use stockcharts.com MA's.